Braden Holtby Contract a Reminder that Inflated Goaltender Salaries are an Epidemic

By Mike Necciai | Jul 26, 2015

As I’m sure you know by now, Braden Holtby and the Washington Capitals have agreed on a new five-year extension worth $6.1 million annually. While Caps fans are ecstatic to have their franchise goaltender locked up, I question the inflated amounts that goalies in the NHL are receiving recently.

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Let me start by saying that this isn’t a knock on Holtby. His performance over the past five years has proven that he’s a very solid, very talented goaltender. But when you look at the premium that teams are willing to pay for net minders, it makes you wonder if they’re spending their cap intelligently. The Pittsburgh Penguins are right on the border of overpayment as well, and that’s coming from a huge Marc-Andre Fleury fan.

Last season, the Capitals were a team that many considered a Stanley Cup contender. They finished second in the Metropolitan Division with 101 points, finished in the top-five for goals scored among Eastern Conference teams, and boasted a league’s best 25.3% power play success rate.

From a goaltending perspective, Holtby played the majority of games for the Caps and recorded a whopping 73 starts. He finished with a 2.22 goals-against average and a .923 save percentage, both good enough to rank in the top ten for those respective categories. However, when you dig a little deeper things get more cloudy.

The Caps finished fourteenth in the league on the penalty kill. Their team shorthanded save percentage ranked twelfth with a .876. A team’s goaltender has to be their best penalty killer, and that wasn’t the case here. Considering that Holtby started all but nine games, he’s obviously responsible for that number while shorthanded. When your team falls at the mid-point among other NHL squads for shots-against per sixty on the PK, a stellar goalie should elevate them to the next level.

Fleury is a great example of a goalie that can take that unit to the next level. I’ve discussed this exact topic in the past, but Pittsburgh’s penalty kill wasn’t actually that strong this past season. The reason Pittsburgh ranked third in the league for PK percentage? They ranked first in shorthanded save-percentage, despite being twenty-eighth in the league for shots-against per sixty minutes.

The Caps also ranked fourteenth in even-strength save percentage. So, during 5v5 play, Braden Holtby boasted a mid-range save percentage at .924. Again, a very good number, but not something that I would consider launching someone into the top-10 goaltender salaries for.

Speaking of the top-10 goalie salaries, this is where things get interesting. Take a look at the highest paid goalies below.

Henrik Lundqvist – $8.5 million
Sergei Bobrovsky – $7.425 million
Tuukka Rask – $7 million
Pekka Rinne – $7 million
Carey Price – $6.5 million
Cam Ward – $6.3 million
Braden Holtby – $6.1 million
Corey Crawford – $6 million
Ryan Miller – $6 million
Cory Schneider – $6 million

That list makes it pretty clear that paying goaltenders a high salary isn’t a championship recipe. Two goaltenders in the top-10 have won a Stanley Cup, and Cam Ward‘s was almost ten years ago. Corey Crawford, while showing periods of brilliance, has proved that a good goalie, not a stellar goalie can get the job done.

So, Braden Holtby is the most recent example of this epidemic, but the Capitals are far from the only team to fall victim to this way of thinking. The Pittsburgh Penguins could honestly be considered a team in this same category, as Fleury counts $5.75 million against the cap and falls just outside of the top-10 salaries. I think very highly of Fleury, but I also see the trend that is occurring in the league.

The salary cap is a chess game. The ability to stockpile young talent on entry-level contracts is one of the ways that teams like the Chicago Blackhawks have found success so often over the last decade. For others, you have to be smart about where you spend your money, and history is proving that the goaltender position may not be the place to spend a fortune.

Ideally, I’d prefer around $5 million and two to three years for a good goalie’s contract. Going long-term is risky with that position, and it’s very possible to get similar production in that range as you would get with an inflated deal north of $6 million. Of course, as the salary cap increases that clearly changes things, but as of right now there are multiple teams that would be better off spending that money elsewhere.

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