Pittsburgh Penguins Using Analytics to Bolster Forward Depth
By Mike Necciai
The Pittsburgh Penguins are a team that has failed to build a formidable bottom-six for most of the Sidney Crosby era. Sure, during their two appearances in the Stanley Cup Finals in 2008 and 2009, it can be argued that they had what was potentially the best third line in hockey. But, what about every other season in that ten-year span?
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You can call it re-tooled, revamped, renewed, or rebuilt. But, names like Tanner Glass, Craig Adams, Maxim Lapierre, Joe Vitale, Marcel Goc, and Zach Sill have often times occupied space for the Pittsburgh Penguins in third and fourth line roles. Players like this do exactly as I stated and nothing more, they occupy space.
This summer, the Pens have shied away from the norm, and they began filling out their roster with what looks to be an analytics driven search. Why do I say that? Well, not only have they acquired a number of players that are proven contributors, those players also boast solid underlying numbers.
First, the Pens traded away Brandon Sutter and brought in Nick Bonino. Bonino, while not a defensive juggernaut, is still more reliable in his own end than Sutter. He also costs much less with a cap hit of $1.9 million compared to Sutter’s $3.3 million. Take a look at his HERO chart below. (via ownthepuck.blogspot.ca)
This is a great way to get a high level view of his performance. Offensively, he produces at a rate similar to first line forwards. Defensively, he falls in the range of third to fourth line for the most part, which is fine considering that’s where he’ll be playing. So, when comparing his production to that of Sutter, how do they stack up?
The upgrade is pretty clear. Sutter, while often looked at as a defensive forward, is anything but that. Bonino, while slightly better at suppressing shots, clearly creates much more offense for his line mates.
Jim Rutherford turned around and signed Eric Fehr shortly after this trade was concluded. Fehr, though unavailable for the first few weeks of the season, is also a more well-rounded forward than the Pens have had in their bottom-six in recent memory. Below is a look at how Fehr’s HERO chart shakes out.
Fehr can play either center or right-wing. He transitioned to center last season with Washington but may need to move back to wing in order for the best balance throughout the Pittsburgh Penguins lineup. His production speaks for itself. Fehr’s also a player that can likely fill in with top-six minutes if needed due to injury.
And finally, the Pens surprised everyone yet again by signing Matt Cullen to a one-year, $800,000 deal. His chart is below.
When you look at the difference in personnel compared to season’s past, there’s no question that Jim Rutherford and Company are using analytics as a means to make their decisions on who to target. The hiring of Sam Ventura, formerly of war-on-ice.com also speaks volumes to the direction their headed.
What we’re looking at doesn’t even breach the surface of the what the Pittsburgh Penguins are likely using for data. However, it’s a great indication of how these players can contribute in different facets of the game.
Of course, there’s always an exception to the rule, and in this case the exception is Phil Kessel. This is where player usage and surroundings come into play with statistics. Kessel played on one of the worst possession teams in the league while with the Toronto Maple Leafs and he isn’t the type of player to drive results in that area. He is, however, the type of player to strive in a situation in which someone else is driving those results for him, which is why he should see a major boost in Pittsburgh alongside either Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin.
Jim Rutherford and the Pittsburgh Penguins get it. Analytics aren’t the only means of evaluating a player, but you will get much more value for your money if you take their underlying numbers into account. They aren’t acquiring players based on a name or reputation, but they’re looking at results and trends instead. That should prove to be a successful formula for the Pens in the near future.
Next: 5 Players Poised to Breakout in 2015-16