Pittsburgh Penguins: Predicting Conor Sheary’s New Contract

Conor Sheary has been performing impressively this season for the Pittsburgh Penguins and he’s due for a payday.

Sheary’s two-year deal which was signed in 2015 with the Pittsburgh Penguins is set to expire at the end of the season. The big questions that are still looming in everyone’s minds are how valuable is he and how long should he stay?

Let’s take a moment to predict what his new contract might look like. Here’s how much I think Conor Sheary will get in his new payout and why he is worth this much.

Money Talks

After being called up last season in a sudden youth movement, Conor Sheary played decently only putting up 10 points in 44 games. This season however, he has amassed his expectations and really shown he deserves a sizeable payout by the Penguins. He currently has 21 goals and 29 assists for 50 points in 55 games this season.

Simply put, based on his overall performance with the Penguins I predict that Sheary’s new contract should be somewhere around $3.75 million for four years. Now why this specific value and term you might ask? Well there’s a few reasons.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Comparables

First off, let’s look at a couple of players whose production and contracts can give us a little insight on what to expect from Sheary. First up is Carl Hagelin. Now Hagelin has a four-year contract with a cap hit of $4 million per year. He signed this before the 2015-16 season. Now Hagelin is a great player to have on the team, but in terms of production he averages around the 30-40 point mark every season. In fact, the highest point total Hagelin has ever accumulated was 38 (14 goals and 24 assists) in his rookie season in 2011-12 with the New York Rangers. Sheary has already performed better than this in two seasons. Does this mean Sheary deserves more? Well not exactly.

The second comparable is Patric Hornqvist, who is currently on a five-year contract worth $4.25 million per year. Hornqvist is closer to Sheary in terms of production. Hornqvist averages around 45-50 points per season, with his highest point total being 53 (22 goals and 31 assists) in 2013-14. Again this brings me to the question, does Sheary deserve this much since he already is having a better season than Hornqvist ever had? Again, I don’t think that’s exactly the case.

Sheary has only played parts of two seasons in the NHL. He has really only stepped up this year. Both Hagelin and Hornqvist played more seasons than this before they earned their current contracts.

With that said, I think their contracts are the perfect measuring sticks for Sheary. If they earned about $4 million for playing more seasons, then Sheary should get a little under that amount until he can further prove himself. I just don’t think the Penguins are in a position to dish out over $4 million to him just yet.

Short-Term Value

Three years would be a perfect length for Sheary because it would give the Penguins just enough time to evaluate his play while benefitting from it in his prime.

Sheary is currently 24 years old. A three-year contract would take him right up until he is 27. This is an age where many players get even bigger contracts. Why is that you may ask? Well its because at 24 there is still a lot of room to develop. There are also a lot of potential risks involved with dishing out long-term contracts this way.

Sheary looks like he’ll be a productive player, but it’s still risky to tell two seasons in. A three-year contract is just enough time to evaluate this. If Sheary exceeds all expectations–great–the Penguins can dish out his BIG contract for longer term as long as they can afford it. If he doesn’t meet his expectations, it’s also great, because the Penguins won’t have to be tied down to him as long as they have other big contracts like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel.

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