Pittsburgh Penguins: NHL Predictions for 2015-16
There are few things sillier than trying to predict, with any certainty, the eventual results of the NHL season. Nearly eight months of grinding, exhausting play interrupted by a meaningless All-Star game and a trade deadline, which extends to the final six weeks of the season, leads to more unexpected occurrences than a David Lynch flick. But what fun is it to admit, no one knows? Let’s make some NHL predictions! Stanley Cup predictions! So, here goes.
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With the lengthy list of additions and subtractions, the 2015-16 Pittsburgh Penguins figure to be a different team than their predecessor, which survived a late season collapse to claim the eighth and final Eastern Conference playoff spot.
To accurately predict team results, however, one cannot merely look at the Penguins additions and subtractions. The Eastern Conference, specifically the Penguins Metropolitan Division, has also seen its teams undergo improvements, which will raise the bar for playoff qualification.
1st prediction—The Metro Division will send five teams to the playoffs, while the Atlantic sends 3. In fact, the strength of the Metro could mean a lower tier team like Philadelphia finishes with more points than 3rd place in the Atlantic (Which will be Florida. More on the Atlantic below).
Let’s begin with the Penguins; each of the forward lines will see at least one new face. The additions of All-Star right-wing Phil Kessel, feisty Russian left-wing Sergei Plotnikov, third line centers Eric Fehr and Nick Bonino and the surprise of skilled second-round draft pick Daniel Sprong give the Pens more offense depth than any team in the East.
The offensive scoring depth will need to offset a defensive corps, which features only two D-men worthy of top four spots. To further place the Penguins hopes in peril, those two defensemen, Kris Letang and Olli Maatta, are each recovering from serious injuries. Both should be considered health risks.
"The Penguins will score more than 250 goals this season. In fact, they will approach 300, which is a herculean accomplishment in the recent dead puck era. The team will score fewer points than Sidney Crosby and Phil Kessel, who will each top 100 points. The team will register 98."
Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction
Kris Letang will miss significant time forcing the Penguins into a late season battle with the Philadelphia Flyers to make the playoffs, which the Penguins ultimately win, entering the post season as the 8th team and second Wild Card, again. As constituted, however, they cannot survive the Metro Division playoffs.
Metro Division Prediction: The New York Islanders
However, the big story will be the relentless Columbus Blue Jackets. The Jackets are big, their forward depth deep, and they are hungry. Brandon Saad–Ryan Johansen–Nick Foligno is a daunting first line; talented and physical. The franchise thought it finally turned the corner in 2014, by making the playoffs and by pushing their hated rival Penguins to the brink in a bruising first round series. A myriad of injuries last season cost the Blue Jackets a chance to make the first back-to-back playoff appearances in franchise history. The Blue Jackets strong finish to 2014-15, however, was a message to the rest of the division; they will be a force to be reckoned.
The Blue Jackets ascension will be one of the complicating factors in the Penguins post season chances. None of the other Metro division playoff teams figure to take steps backwards. The Blue Jackets, like the Pens, have questions on defense but Columbus doesn’t have the injury concerns. The Jackets also have selections in the top three rounds of the 2016 NHL draft, giving them more ammunition to acquire defensive help.
Sergei Bobrovsky is good enough to hold the fort while GM Jarmo Kekalainen rounds up defensive help.
Ultimately, the New York Islanders will wear the Metro crown. There is a lot to like about the Islanders maturation. They have the game’s most unheralded star, John Tavares and a great mix of talent and physicality. Also, their fourth line, the most bruising in hockey, (Martin-Czikas-Clutterbuck) has been a thorn in talented teams’ sides, including the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Islanders are a year older, a year wiser and ready for the next step.
Eastern Conference Honorable Mention: Washington Capitals
While the Caps had the best bottom-six in the NHL, they have lacked top-six depth. The TJ Oshie for Troy Brouwer deal fixes that.
Eastern Conference Dishonorable Mentions
New York Rangers
They are not as good as last season and Rick Nash figures to regress. However, they can always take the life out of a game and rely on the best goalie in the NHL, Henrik Lundqvist, which they will do. Often.
Detroit Red Wings
With aging stars Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk battling injury issues and a lack of players able to replace that offense, Jeff Blashill’s first season in Detroit will see the franchise’s end of twenty-four straight years in the playoffs.
Ottawa Senators
Too many sophomores. Too many question marks. The Hamburgler, Andrew Hammond, will not be as good after his magical, Johan Hedberg type emergence. In fact, he’s an average NHL goalie. Ottawa stays within shouting distance all season, but never really challenges the Penguins or Panthers for a playoff berth.
The Eastern Conference will have a large schism between the haves and have-nots.
Projected Eastern Conference Standings
ATLANTIC DIVISION
- Tampa Bay Lightning 112
- Montreal Canadiens 102
- Florida Panthers 93
(Ottawa 88. Boston 85. Buffalo 82. Toronto 62)
METROPOLITAN DIVISION
- New York Islanders 114
- Columbus Blue Jackets 110
- Washington Capitals 104
- New York Rangers 100
- Pittsburgh Penguins 98
(Philadelphia 94. New Jersey 74. Carolina 58).
Divisional Playoff Predictions
I’m having a hard time picking between the Isles and Jackets in the Metro. In the end, I think the Islanders will succumb to the Blue Jackets, which are built for playoff hockey. The Florida Panthers will take advantage of a passive Atlantic Division playoffs and upset the Tampa Bay Lightning, who last year relied on the speed and magic of the “Triplets” line. Gut feeling—the “triplets” magic fades when Tampa Bay needs an encore, setting up an epic battle for the East between upstarts and terrible TV markets. It will be great hockey, while the NHL and NBC grimace daily at the overnight TV numbers…eventually bumping the series, due to a sudden conflict in programming, to CNBC, or resurrecting OLN, just to bury this series.
Eastern Conference Winner: Columbus Blue Jackets
Ultimately, Florida isn’t in Columbus or the Metro Division winner’s class. And Columbus skates around without touching the Prince of Wales Trophy. For God Sakes, touch it! Pick it up. Do a little skate! It was done for decades and no one died or lost the Cup because of it.
West Prediction
I would love to break down the Western Conference but this is a Penguins blog. So, I’ll cut to the chase. Anaheim and LA will wage a war for the West, which will do the Battle of Alberta proud; hateful, bruising and intense. St. Louis will mount their annual pretend challenge, which sees a great regular season wasted in the first round. Chicago will be good and Dallas will be fun. None are in the league of the So Cal bruisers.
Anaheim has much more scoring, while LA is heavy from top to bottom with great goaltending. Everyone is picking Anaheim, for good reason but that bandwagon has just a few too many on board. The Ducks goaltending hasn’t been cup worthy under the bright lights, so I’ll take LA to play for its third Stanley Cup.
Stanley Cup Prediction: The L.A. Kings
They are not the best team in hockey but with the addition of Milan Lucic, the Kings again have enough firepower to win when it counts. Their defense and ability to prevent goals is not in question. They’re built for the post season and with the Mike Richards saga behind them, the team will rebound in a big way.
Individual Awards
Hart Trophy: Sidney Crosby
A 110-point season in a dead puck era will make 87 the toast of Canada, once again. Crosby’s season will eclipse the great numbers put up by several goalies. Plus, with the game squeezing offense, a goalie should not win the award.
Calder Trophy: Jack Eichel
Eichel has little brother syndrome. He has played a begrudging second fiddle to Connor McDavid for a few years. Eichel craves that spotlight. New Sabres coach Dan Bylsma will feed the wolf and here’s predicting Eichel scores 30 and sets up 50 more, as he eyes his draft counter part, McDavid’s progress, daily.
Norris Trophy: Victor Hedman
On the strength of his 2015 Stanley Cup finals play, Victor Hedman is handed the hardware. So many great D-men dominate hockey, that it is impossible to choose. Voters will remember the big man’s coming out party last June.
Jack Adams Trophy: Todd Richards
The Blue Jackets great regular season will make the former Pittsburgh farm hand head coach The Coach of the Year.
So, there ya go. Hate on me below or on twitter @BudMoonshine.
Next: Early Offseason Metropolitan Division Power Rankings