Pittsburgh Penguins-NYR: Key Questions and Predictions
The Pittsburgh Penguins’ first playoff series begins this evening, but lots of factors are still up in the air. Can the Pens prevail even with those questions looming?
This is it, Pens fans. The playoffs start today. The New York Rangers are visiting the Pittsburgh Penguins for a contentious first-round matchup.
There are still plenty of questions surrounding the Pens, though. Who will be healthy in time to play? Who won’t? Will their hot streak continue? The Rangers are fairly injured too, so can we use that to our advantage?
A lot of things are still up in the air before the puck first drops tonight. Let’s take a look at a few of those issues.
Next: The Goaltending Situation
Will Jeff Zatkoff be forced into starting duty, and if so, are the Pens doomed?
I feel like the overwhelming majority of Penguins fans believe that Jeff Zatkoff is the second coming of the dismal 2010-13 Playoff-Fleury. Of course, the guy who quite literally was 2010-13 Playoff-Fleury is not only still on the team but also the guy they are desperately praying to the high heavens is back in time for game 1.
I’d argue that Zatkoff is far from that guy, and I’m actually quite confident that he could lead the team to a series win in round 1 if Marc-Andre Fleury and/or Matt Murray aren’t able to return. For the season (small sample size alert), he posted a .917 save percentage – and that was back when the team was fiery pile of garbage. His career save percentage, while also kind of small sample, is at .915.
Guess what league average was this year? .915.
The guy has shown to this point he is more than capable of being an average goaltender, and for a team that is capable of controlling games the way that these Penguins are that really should be all that they need. Is he liable to the odd implosion? Sure, but if I know anything from watching Fleury’s career and the first few games of Murray’s they are most definitely also vulnerable to allowing softies every now and again.
Fleury hasn’t been cleared for game 1 yet, with coach Mike Sullivan making it a gametime decision. If he isn’t, well… pretend like you were confident all along when Zatkoff stops 24/26 in an average (and adequate) performance.
Next: The Malkin Question
When will Evgeni Malkin be ready to return and who should he play with?
I’m not a doctor and the only insider information I get from the Penguins is stuff I only dream about. But if I’m on the Penguins’ coaching staff and Evgeni Malkin isn’t at 100% by Wednesday night, I would be in no rush at all to get him back in the lineup.
In fact, he wasn’t on the ice practicing this morning, so it looks like we’re on the same page here.
Is this team better with him? There’s no question in the world about that: watch his goals against Edmonton and Minnesota and just try to make an argument about not wanting to mess with team chemistry. The guy’s a superstar.
With that said, they’ve won 14 of 16 without him and if this is going to be an extended playoff run, you want him as healthy as possible to the very end. If you wait until game 2 to put him back in, it’s only 3 more days without him; game 3 would be 6 extra days. Any player could use that at this point in the year.
As far as who he should play with (and I might sound like a bit of a hypocrite now), I don’t want to mess with team chemistry. The Sidney Crosby and Nick Bonino lines have both been possession monsters with Malkin out and are producing multiple multiple multiple scoring chances every night.
I can understand the argument behind playing on Crosby’s wing. However, in the limited opportunities I’ve had to watch them in the past it does not look like they’re some kind of super line that’s completely unstoppable. I don’t think these playoffs are when you want to test the waters and see if that suddenly happens now.
Instead, putting him between Conor Sheary and Eric Fehr allows him to control the puck the way he is used to while still having wingers that are capable of finishing scoring chances. Having the highly responsible and defensively-minded Fehr on his line could also take on some of the faceoff burden.
That would create three incredibly intimidating lines already, while the Matt Cullen line is one of the strongest fourths in the playoffs. Matchup nightmare.
Next: Bennett and his Boo-Boos
When will Beau Bennett be ready to return and who should he play with?
Just kidding!
We already can predict the answer to this question. We all know Beau Bennett will play one game (or less), with flashes of offensive potential and brilliance before inevitably re-aggravating the shoulder injury he’s had for what seems like forever.
Next: Olli Maatta and the Defense
When will Olli Maatta return, and how should the top 6 be constructed?
Olli Maatta is someone I hope would be able to return as soon as possible.
Based on the minutes played since Justin Schultz became a lineup regular, it’s become pretty clear that, despite all the great things that the coaches and upper management like to say about him and his partnership with Ian Cole, they aren’t going to be trusted to play more than 12-15 minutes a night. That number could be even less as the intensity ramps up.
As a result there’s an increased burden placed on Kris Letang‘s shoulders, but it would also mean more minutes for the others in the top 4. One of those is currently Ben Lovejoy, who (as I’m sure we all remember quite well from last year) didn’t exactly handle a big increase in his time on ice late in the season and into the playoffs.
I also fear a potential burn-out from Trevor Daley. Daley has been a tremendous boon to the team since his trade from Chicago but has traditionally not been a great possession driver and does have some holes defensively. When Maatta is able to return I would leave the third pairing alone while returning the top two lines to the way they were before Maatta left the lineup.
That would put him paired with Letang, and Daley with Brian Dumoulin. Lovejoy and Derrick Pouliot would then make for very strong 7th/8th defensemen.
Next: Dethroning The King
Will the Penguins finally figure out how to solve Playoffs Henrik Lundqvist?
Honestly, I really think they will. On the other hand, I don’t believe any of the stories of the Pens finally getting to Henrik Lundqvist during the “pushing the net off its moorings” freakout of early March.
Yes, they’ve had success in the 2.5 games since then but they’re also a much better team than they were the previous two years. He’ll come to play the same way he always does, there’s no real question about that.
I mean, the guy hasn’t been below a .927 save percentage in the last four postseasons! He’ll be stellar, and that’s that. Even though he’s under the weather now, he’s an all-world goalie and will probably be great.
But this Penguins team is not the same as ones of years past. Mike Sullivan has this team pushing the envelope, shift after shift after shift, and with the resiliency and fight and passion they’ve shown in the second half of the season I just don’t see them getting frustrated and rattled like they might in the last few seasons.
Could Lundqvist post a shutout in game 1? Absolutely. But instead of being worried he had gotten in their heads and the series being over before it started, I feel much more confident in the idea the Pens will come even harder the next night and put five past him.
I’ll make the bold prediction right now that his four year run of .927 or above save percentages will come to an end this year.
Next: A Final Prediction...
Final Prediction:
In a cruel twist of fate in overtime of game 5, Carl Hagelin, in an attempt to swat at the loose puck in the slot, scores an unintentional goal on Sean Maguire (over from Boston University since all of the top 4 goalies have been lost to “upper-body” injuries”), to personally eliminate the Penguins for the second consecutive year.
Malkin becomes the fanbase scapegoat for “ruining team chemistry” in his return despite recording 6 points in three games and subsequently returns to the KHL for the 2016-17 season, citing self-confidence issues stemming from the lack of acceptance from the people of Pittsburgh.
Next: Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Injury Update
Mario Lemieux and Ron Burkle, sensing an immediate loss in value of the franchise, make an impulse decision to sell the Pens to Jim Balsillie, who then moves the team to Hamilton, Ontario and changes the team nickname from the Penguins to the Steelers, saving thousands of fans from having to purchase new merchandise.
Just joking. We’re winning the Cup.