The Pittsburgh Penguins hope of a three-peat were dashed for the first time since 1994, when the Washington Capitals defeated them in the playoffs with a 4-2 series victory.
And now that the Pittsburgh Penguins are in the offseason, the focus must shift to the 2018-19 season. The salary cap is projected go up by at least $3 million, which gives the Penguins a little bit of wiggle room to do some signing. But what do the Pens need?
Penguins’ Problems
Many of the issues the Penguins had should resolve themselves by next year. The Pens had very little scoring from anyone but Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel, but a lot of that can be attributed to injuries to Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel, and Derick Brassard. The Penguins also called up a number of Black Aces, including skillful scorer Daniel Sprong, but never put him in the lineup. (Dominik Simon, on the other hand, played eight games in the postseason and notched just three assists—and that was while playing with Crosby and Guentzel.)
The Penguins also struggled with their defense not just in the postseason, but all year. The Pens have little defensive depth and the defensemen they do have were underwhelming, particularly in the playoffs. Signing John Carlson can change that.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Carlson’s Upside
In the 2017-18 regular season, Carlson posted 15 goals and an impressive 68 points over the full 82-game season. On top of that, he was an even plus-minus and so far in the playoffs, he has three goals and 15 points in 17 games and is a plus-five. For comparison, in 79 games, Kris Letang had nine goals and 51 points. However, Letang ended the regular season as a minus-nine. In the postseason, Letang notched three goals and 11 points in 12 games and had an even plus-minus.
Not only are Carlson’s numbers better than the Pens’ best (and most expensive) defenseman, but he’s also three years younger and has a lower cap hit. Letang’s current cap hit is $7.25 million; Carlson made just under $4 million this year. And with the Pens already having $4.7 million already available in cap space and adding at least $3 million more with the rise of the salary cap, general manager Jim Rutherford can certainly afford to sign Carlson.
How the Pens Can Afford Carlson
The only unrestricted free agent (UFA) the Penguins have is Carter Rowney, who made just over $600,000. The Pens do have a number of restricted free agents (RFAs), including Tom Kunhackl, Bryan Rust, Dominik Simon, Riley Sheahan, and Jamie Oleksiak. Only Sheahan makes more than a million dollars, and his last cap hit was $2.075 million.
Zach Aston-Reese plays the same positions—center and right wing—as Rowney, and is under contract for another year. Kunhackl and Simon, while cheap, shouldn’t be overpaid for, as the Penguins do have a lot of offensive depth. Rust’s cap hit last year was $640,000, and he’s due for a big pay raise. Rust is a solid forward and has been particularly good in big playoff games; the Pens should do their best to keep him. Sheahan has also been good for the Pens, and led the team in faceoff percentage at 54.4% in the regular season and 55.9% in the playoffs.
The Penguins do have some pieces that can be moved. Carl Hagelin is moving into the last year of his contract, and will be a UFA next summer; he makes $4 million. Conor Sheary has two more years on his contract and makes $3 million; while his stats were about the same as Rust’s, Sheary makes nearly five times as much.
Should the Pens Consider Moving Letang?
Most of the names in Penguins trade rumors are forwards, due to the Pens’ depth there. However, there has also been some scuttlebutt about moving Letang. He’s had numerous, severe injuries, and when he is in the lineup, his play is inconsistent. He also is the third most expensive player on the team, behind only Crosby and Malkin, and moving him would free up a lot of cap space for the Pens. On the other hand, because the Pens do lack defensive depth, they would need to get a good defenseman (or defensemen) in return for Letang, and be able to afford them.
The Penguins are still a great team, and will be contenders in the 2018-19 season. But their defense didn’t play as well as they needed to in the 2018 playoffs, and the addition of John Carlson would give the Pens the boost they need to win their third Stanley Cup in four years.