It's Time to Embrace a Rebuild

During Friday’s appearance on The FAN Hockey Show, NHL insider Elliotte Friedman had a conversation with hosts Matt Marchese and Mike Futa about the likelihood that the Penguins will use Bryan Rust and Erik Karlsson as trade chips this summer. Rickard Rakell’s name has also been mentioned lately. Even Ryan Graves was floated out there by Pens Labyrinth contributor Tyler Miller after the Evander Kane trade to Vancouver.

I recently mentioned in an article about Kris Letang that Kyle Dubas will likely use franchise cornerstone Evgeni Malkin as another trade chip this season after reports came out that the Penguins will not offer a new contract to him as his current deal expires at the end of next year. If all of these rumors or speculated potential trades do come to fruition, it signifies that the Penguins are without a doubt entering a serious rebuild, and that means that Sidney Crosby’s days are likely and unfortunately numbered. But what’s the end goal to all of this? Why would Dubas do this?

Well, it’s all about asset management. If he can turn aging, declining “assets” into spendable draft capital or into young prospects or youthful NHL players, he can begin to rebuild this franchise for the not-so-immediate future. While having a lot of draft picks is exciting on draft night as we witnessed on Friday and Satuday this week, having young prospects in the system can also be valuable once this team starts to figure out which of those draft picks are worth building around 3-5 years from now. The prospects that don’t quite fit into whatever roles are available can become trade chips for older, more experienced players down the road which helps end the rebuild phase.

For example, the New York Islanders traded a 25 year old, right shot defenceman in Noah Dobson to the Montreal Canadiens for two first round picks and a 2020 2nd rounder in Emil Heinemen. New York is entering a rebuild and was looking at acquiring valuable assets for a player that wasn’t going to sign with the team long-term due to their current cap situation. From Montreal’s perspective, they just made the playoffs for the first time in 4 years and they were able to use their draft capital to acquire a top-pairing defender who will anchor their blue line for almost a decade to come beside the reigning Calder Trophy winner in Lane Hutson.  Pittsburgh will find themselves in a similar situation to the Islanders in the near future, then can find themselves in a situation similar to Montreal’s in 3-5 years from now.

Having draft capital or a deep farm system teaming with young, up and coming players isn’t always about development. It’s about amassing assets that can be viewed essentially as currency to make bigger moves to help turn a “rebuilding” team like the Pens and Isles into a “contending” team like the Habs.

While it is tough to willingly enter a rebuild phase and while most Penguins fans will still want the team to push for another cup run during the Crosby era, Dubas’ actions show that he’s focused on the long term and wants to turn the page sooner rather than later in effort to accelerate an inevitable and painful process. We saw an example of this within the Penguins organization on Friday night when he took the 12th overall pick and turned it into the 22nd and 31st overall picks. Then he turned the 31st pick and some change into the 24th overall pick. As I was explaining this to my fiancée, I used the analogy of turning a $5 bill into 7 $1 bills with $3 up front and $4 coming later. Yes, you’re giving up a nice, crisp, fresh asset that on its own has more value than a few wrinkled $1 bills, but overall, you’re gaining more value in the long run. And maybe in the future we can somehow turn those 7 $1 bills into a $10 when we’re in a position to go after a Noah Dobson who will provide an immediate upgrade on a growing team looking to get back into contention status.

Again, while it’s hard to watch this team potentially dismantle its current and beloved core, I do believe that Dubas’ actions so far during this offseason and draft are setting the club up for new success down the road. We’ll have to watch to see how deep the cuts go this summer and/or this upcoming season, but as of now, the future looks brighter in the ‘Burg than it did at this point last year or the year prior. And that is an exciting concept I’m willing to watch play out. We’re not competing for a cup this year or next, but hopefully we can find ourselves in a position where we’re routinely making deep playoff runs throughout the 2030’s like Tampa Bay, Florida, Colorado, Dallas, Vegas, and Carolina have been doing the past handful of years or like the Penguins did when they won back to back Stanley Cups in 2016 and 2017.