Did the Pittsburgh Penguins get enough in the Jake Guentzel trade?
The Pittsburgh Penguins are still one of the more talented teams out there, but that didn’t stop them from selling winger Jake Guentzel near the NHL trade deadline.
Last night, we finally saw the Pittsburgh Penguins send Jake Guentzel elsewhere in a move that was bound to happen. The Carolina Hurricanes were the lucky team, and it was a trade that also involved blueliner Ty Smith, who will be playing in the AHL for the time being.
So, while the Hurricanes received two players in the swap, Pittsburgh snagged quite a bit of compensation, including Michael Bunting, a trio of prospects, and up to two conditional draft picks for 2024. But did the Penguins get enough in the swap, or could they have gotten more from the Hurricanes?
Let’s break down everyone who will either be coming to the Steel City or at least joining their prospects pool, along with the conditions involving each potential draft pick.
Michael Bunting is a familiar face to the Penguins general manager
Michael Bunting isn’t one of the younger players in the league, but he can be a sound asset for the Penguins until his contract expires following the 2025-26 season. Bunting spent a couple of seasons playing under general manager Kyle Dubas with the Toronto Maple Leafs for two seasons, where he scored 112 points, 46 goals, and took third for the Calder Trophy in 2022 at age 26.
Bunting also matched the Maple Leafs personality with his physical play (170 hits in two seasons), something that is a stark contrast from what we have seen in Carolina, a team that has logged just 17 hits per game. He also wasn’t as effective in Raleigh, with just 36 points, 13 goals, 23 assists, and 22 takeaways (49 last year).
That said, it made sense why the Hurricanes wanted to create cap space with the winger. However, Bunting gives the Penguins a solid scoring option, especially if he regains the form we saw during his stint in Toronto.
The Penguins power play has been nothing short of awful through 61 games, with a conversion percentage of just 15.05, good for just 28th in the league. But if you look at Bunting’s numbers on the man advantage, they are rather good.
He has six power play goals this season, and the Hurricanes scored an eye-popping 29 goals when he was on the ice at 5-on-4, good for a 17.3 on-ice shooting percentage. So, while Bunting is no Jake Guentzel, he is a solid role player who should be a Penguin for a few seasons.
Breaking down the prospects Pittsburgh acquired for Guentzel
A 51st-overall pick in 2021, Ville Koivunen has yet to make the permanent trip to North America, but he did make his AHL debut last season with the Chicago Wolves and stayed for 12 games, logging just one point in the process.
However, Koivunen has made quite the jump this season with Karpat in Liiga, where he has 55 points and 21 goals in 57 contests. With such a jump in productivity, Koivunen could be ready for North American hockey in 2024-25, and if that’s the case, look for his game to further evolve.
The Penguins may have landed an NHLer in the Guentzel trade
Another former second-round pick, Vasily Ponomarev has been playing pro hockey in North America since the 2021-22 season, where he ended the campaign with 10 points and three goals in 11 games before tacking on another six points and one goal in 18 playoff games. Last season was an encouraging one for the forward, as he recorded 46 points, 24 goals, and 22 assists in 64 games.
This season, he scored 29 points and eight goals in 39 games with the Wolves, and Ponomarev also saw time in the Carolina Hurricanes lineup for a pair of contests, where he logged one goal and one helper. The clear upside with Ponomarev is that he appears to be NHL-ready, considering his productivity not only in the AHL, but also in his limited appearances with the big club.
Pittsburgh also received an intriguing prospect in Cruz Lucius, whom the Hurricanes selected 124th overall in 2022. Lucius was the only unsigned prospect involved in the trade, and he is currently at the University of Wisconsin, where he has 65 points and 23 goals in 66 contests through two seasons.
Lucius will be one to watch if he keeps up his current productivity, and if he stays in school for another two seasons, the Penguins will eventually have a sound developmental prospect with some high-scoring potential in their system over in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton.
Draft picks are always a positive for older teams, but…
The only issue here is the condition of the two picks, as they don’t appear to work in the Penguins favor. Carolina must make the 2024 Stanley Cup Final for the 2024 first-round pick to stand, or else the Penguins will get a second-round pick. For a player of Guentzel’s caliber, Dubas needed to demand an unconditional first-rounder, and it should have been non-negotiable.
Pittsburgh also should have gotten more than a conditional fifth-rounder that will only transfer to the Penguins if Guentzel helps the Hurricanes win their first Stanley Cup in nearly two decades. When it comes to draft picks, this was a victory in Carolina’s favor, as it could only leave the Penguins with a second-rounder, and nothing more.
Did the Penguins get enough for Jake Guentzel?
Penguins fans should be happy with Bunting, plus the trio of prospects. We already know Bunting can be a solid player, even if his productivity will never be top-tier. Koivunen is on the right path, and he could even wind up making the smooth transition to the North American game for 2024-25.
Vasily Ponomarev has shown us enough that he could be ready to take the next step in 2024-25 and join the Penguins full-time. If that occurs, then the 21-year-old could immediately establish himself as a young talent more than capable of producing points, winning faceoffs, and providing some gritty play.
Lucius is one for fans to watch throughout his college career and if he keeps up his current productivity, there is no question the Penguins will sign him. Only the draft picks are concerning, and they are the reason why Pittsburgh ultimately did not get enough in the Jake Guentzel trade.
However, they still found one building block for the present, one for the near future, and two that could easily wind up in Pittsburgh sometime in the latter part of the decade. Therefore, Pittsburgh still got a potentially good deal here, even if it could have been better.
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(Statistics provided by Hockey-Reference and Elite Prospects)