The Toronto Maple Leafs are looking to bring the Stanley Cup back to Canada's capital for the first time since 1967. After years of underperforming in the playoffs, the Maple Leafs finally look like legitimate contenders. And not a year too soon, because Toronto and GM Brad Treliving will have to make some difficult decisions this summer.
The Leafs will have a projected $27 million in cap space this offseason, which is substantial. However, the Leafs also will have some big-time free agents this offseason: Mitch Marner, John Tavares will be unrestricted free agents, while Matthew Knies and Nicolas Robertson will be restricted free agents.
Marner has finally performed well in a playoff series and will command a huge payday, likely in the $13 million AAV range if not higher. Matthew Knies is also rumored to be asking for a contract in the $9 million AAV range, which leaves just $5 million to pay Tavares, Robertson, and others. It also must be noted that goaltender Anthony Stolarz is eligible for an extension this offseason and, based on his performance this year, will also make a considerable salary.
How do the Penguins exploit this?
The Penguins will have around $23 million in available cap space this offseason, and with no major free agents pending, the Pens are in a prime position to take a swing at one of the Toronto Maple Leafs' stars. The question is who should they target, and does it make sense for the Pens to do so?
Mitch Marner.
The biggest criticism of Marner in previous years was his playoff performances. Case and point, last year against Boston Marner had 3 points. This year, Marner has played splendidly against the Senators, and while that is music to Maple Leaf ears, that also means his asking price goes up.
In 2019, Marner signed a 6-year, $65.41 million contract with an AAV of $10.90 million. That would be a bargain if he signed that deal this offseason, but he will not. The question is what he asks for. Leon Draisaitl, for example, signed an 8-year deal with an AAV of $14 million this offseason.
Will Marner get paid the same amount as Draisaitl? Well, that depends. Is Marner a better player than the Oilers superstar? No, but it is worth noting that Draisaitl signed that deal before the announcement of the salary cap for the next three seasons. Next year, the cap will jump from $88 million to $95 million, then from $95 million to $104 million then to $113.5 million in 2027-28. It is entirely possible that Marner asks for more than Leon considering the rising cap.
It will be impossible for the Leafs to keep both Knies and Marner, and the Penguins can make their decision easier by offering Marner a 7-year, $14 million AAV deal. Marner is only 27, so this deal will not age too badly, and Marner played well alongside Sidney Crosby at the Four Nations. If Kyle Dubas is serious about trying to return to contention sooner rather than later, Marner is someone he should target.
Offer Sheet Matthew Knies with a 4-year, $10 million AAV deal.
Offer Sheets are taboo but Blues GM Doug Armstrong might have started a trend when he did it last year. The compensation range has not been calculated yet but last year a $10 million AAV deal would cost 2 1st round picks as well as a 2nd and a 3rd. Now the max for tier below that was a 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounder. This is speculative but I think a $10 million AAV offer sheet will cost a 2026 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick.
This is a high price, but assuming the Rangers keep their pick this year, the Penguins will have two 2026 1st round picks while also having 3 seconds and two thirds, which, if this scenario plays out, one in each round will be used for Matthew Knies.
Knies is only 22 years old. He also plays a physical game and is highly skilled, scoring 29 goals this year, also adding 29 assists. It has also been a recent trend for younger players to have fewer years on the first deal after their ELC because they would be eligible for a massive extension quicker than if they signed an 8-year deal.
Matthew Knies would make an immediate impact for the Penguins, and if he continues on his current trajectory, he can be a star on the Penguins for a decade or more.