Why the Penguins might escape Detroit's fate with a 2025 rebuild

The good old ‘rebuild vs. retool’ debate for the Penguins won’t end until they give us a signal of where they’re going this summer
Nov 13, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA;  Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Erik Karlsson (65) skates with the puck against Detroit Red Wings right wing Jonatan Berggren (48) during the second period at PPG Paints Arena. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
Nov 13, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Erik Karlsson (65) skates with the puck against Detroit Red Wings right wing Jonatan Berggren (48) during the second period at PPG Paints Arena. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

If the Penguins traded Sidney Crosby this summer, then it’s all over. It’s a surefire rebuild that would result in two fire sales. One following a potential Crosby trade, and another at the 2026 trade deadline, which would comprise any player general manager Kyle Dubas didn’t move in July. 

While the move probably wouldn’t happen, it would make the Penguins the talk of the NHL again, maybe for all the right or wrong reasons, depending on the overall outlook. Would this hypothetical rebuild, in foresight, look more like what we’ve seen in Detroit or closer to what we’ve seen in Montreal?

If you’re a longtime NHL fan, you’ll know the Red Wings have been rebuilding since 2016, and the results are just now showing. The only thing is, those results haven’t led to a playoff berth. Meanwhile, in Quebec, the Canadiens started going through a reclamation project following their surprise Stanley Cup Final appearance in 2021 and already returned to the playoffs. 

A Penguins rebuild could either resemble Detroit’s or Montreal’s

The Penguins prospect pipeline isn’t a barren wasteland, and that was the uphill battle Detroit faced in 2016 and, really, until the Steve Yzerman era kicked off a few years later. It’s also a problem the New York Islanders could be facing if and when they host a fire sale this summer, and the Penguins are at least ahead of them, even if the Black and Gold didn’t have New York’s luck at the Draft Lottery.

Plus, the Penguins have such a slew of aging veterans, there’s no way Kyle Dubas can get rid of them all in one offseason. This means that, as the Penguins age in reverse, a few players are sticking around the Steel City to at least oversee the beginning stages of this rebuild. That also works in the organization’s favor. 

That said, it would also help them avoid situations we’ve seen more recently in Chicago and San Jose, where the Blackhawks and Sharks seem to be stuck at the bottom of the league’s barrel for going on half a decade. This means the Penguins will at least play more competitive hockey than the eyesores we’ve seen in the Western Conference. 

Penguins reclamation project would likely resemble Montreal’s

Yeah, this means up to four years of bad hockey, and it doesn’t count the previous three seasons. But, the Penguins aren’t likely starting from scratch should Dubas welcome in a rebuild, and that would cut off up to five years before the organization sees better results on the ice. 

Plus, players like Rutger McCroarty and Ville Koivunen are a duo the Pens can build their organization around. This puts them in something that can be reminiscent of a Nick Suzuki/Cole Caufield situation. Sure, they’ll need a few more cornerstones, but the Penguins would be off to a hot start in which fans can at least enjoy the team’s development, even if wins are few and far in between. 

Overall, there are pieces in place to kickstart a reclamation project without needing to build an entire foundation on a patch of land. It may need a few more cornerstones, but that’s better than what I can say for some of the organizations I mentioned earlier, like Detroit, Chicago, and San Jose.