Pittsburgh Penguins: Top Five Offseason Mistakes to Avoid This Summer

Apr 24, 2015; New York, NY, USA; New York Rangers center

(28) and right wing

(19) celebrate the game winning goal scored by left wing

(62) (not pictured) on Pittsburgh Penguins goalie

(29) during overtime in game five of the first round of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Madison Square Garden. The Rangers defeated the Penguins 2 – 1 in overtime to advance to the next round. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

It happens year after year, and the Pittsburgh Penguins are just as guilty as any other team in the NHL. There are common mistakes that teams make every summer based off of small sample sizes, big names, or simply incorrect analysis of team needs.

The Pittsburgh Penguins are in a unique situation this summer. They’re a team haunted by bad veteran contracts, but yet they’ll have cap room to retool with very good players due to Paul Martin and Christian Ehrhoff coming off the books, as well as multiple $1 million contracts signed this past season.

They’re also in a position to reap the rewards of drafting so many defensemen over the past five years, as they’ll have a very good, very young, and very cheap blue line. General Manager Jim Rutherford will have to deal with Rob Scuderi and either find someone willing to take on his contract in a trade or buy him out. But, otherwise, this defensive corps is in pretty great shape.

The scary thing about this summer is the void of talent within the upcoming free agent class. Two of the top five free agents will be the aforementioned Martin and Ehrhoff, with little offensive talent to choose from. For a team looking to get younger and faster on offense this is obviously a huge obstacle.

So, what mistakes do the Pittsburgh Penguins need to avoid?

Feb 7, 2015; Saint Paul, MN, USA; Colorado Avalanche forward

(48) in the second period against the Minnesota Wild at Xcel Energy Center. The Minnesota Wild beat the Colorado Avalanche 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

5. Don’t Get Caught Up in Big Names

There are going to be veterans available this summer that have contributed in the past. A great example is Daniel Briere. I’m sure Pittsburgh Penguins fans remember him from his days with Montreal and Philadelphia. He’s been a very good player in the NHL for a long time, but that was decades ago in hockey years.

While it was a different regime, Pittsburgh fell into this trap when they traded for defenseman Douglas Murray. He’s a guy with a well-known name and reputation and Ray Shero traded two second round draft picks for him. When he arrived in Pittsburgh he looked old and slow, because that’s exactly what he was.

They also signed a guy by the name of Rob Scuderi to a long-term deal based on past accolades.  We all know how well that has worked out.

What I’m saying is, don’t get hung up on past successes and big names. This team needs to get younger.

Sep 25, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Penguins center Oskar Sundqvist (49) moves the puck up ice against the Minnesota Wild during the second period at the CONSOL Energy Center. The Penguins won 3-2 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

4. Trust Expectation and Potential Over Experience

In a way, this is similar to number five. You hear it constantly. “We need to get a veteran presence with some experience”.

Ever since Bill Guerin departed from the Pittsburgh Penguins the team has been searching for another Bill Guerin. Well, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but those guys don’t grow on trees. Also, the Pens have that veteran leadership in Pascal Dupuis given that he’s able to return next season.

This team isn’t in desperate need of veteran leadership at this point.  They showed a lot of poise in the post season against a very good and very frustrating New York Rangers team.

Remember when we traded for Brendan Morrow? What about that trade for Ben Lovejoy in order to add “experience”? You see my point…

Spare me the experience line and find me guys with speed and skill so they can compliment Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.

Apr 21, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Blackhawks center

(80) celebrates scoring a goal during the first period against the Nashville Predators in game four of the first round of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs at the United Center. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

3. Don’t Discount Analytics

A lot of NHL GM’s get caught up on small sample sizes and overvalue certain players.  Don’t be that GM, Mr. Rutherford.

While advanced stats are fairly new to the sport, they’re very telling about a player’s true performance vs. their perceived value.  Certain players have reputations that simply aren’t backed up by anything tangible, and they continue to get paid high salaries and consume unwarranted ice team because of the “eye test”.

Don’t misunderstand me, I don’t believe that you can tell everything about an individual by looking at a HERO chart.  If you want an example of someone that disproves that theory then take a look at Chris Kunitz and his outstanding possession numbers but no production.

But, more often than not in the NHL, players are overvalued based on a reputation or past successes (ahem, Rob Scuderi), and with the proper analysis of their underlying numbers you’ll clearly see differently.

The Chicago Blackhawks traded a first-round pick and defenseman Klas Dahlback for Antoine Vermette.  When the playoffs began, Vermette was a healthy scratch and a large disappointment.  Analytics would have shown that he wasn’t living up to his reputation.

Feb 6, 2015; Newark, NJ, USA; Toronto Maple Leafs right wing

(71) argues a call with referee Tom Kowal (32) during the third period at Prudential Center. The Devils defeated the Maple Leafs 4-1. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

2. Don’t Overpay Due to a Weak Free Agent Market

It never fails.  You can always count on an NHL team giving a third-line caliber player, like David Clarkson, big money due to a disappointing free agent market and one productive year.

This is where the aforementioned HERO charts can be invaluable.  Take a look at David Clarkson this past season (via ownthepuck.blogspot.ca).

A guy that barely performs up to second or third line potential is carrying a $4.75 million cap hit.  It’s very easy to see similar occurrences this offseason.

Let’s hope Rutherford uses his assets wisely and avoids that mess.