What should the Pittsburgh Penguins faithful expect from Phil Kessel this season? Let’s delve into the calculations and gauge where his numbers could fall in 2015-16. What kind of impact will Kessel’s new teammates have on his production? What kind of boost will he provide the Pens?
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Over the course of his nine year career Kessel has averaged 74 games, 27 goals, and 58 points per season. This included the shortened lockout year so his rates of .4 goals-per-game and .78 points-per-game can be adjusted thusly to 33 goals and 64 points over the course of a full season. This is of note as Kessel has done just that over the last 5 seasons.
We can also look at Phil Kessel’s shots over the entirety of his NHL career. His highest shot total was in 2010-11 when he recorded 325 shots, and his career average of 3.4 shots per game would provide an expected 280 shots for Kessel. That 280 would be a safe low end, and somewhere between that 280 and 320 is where Kessel will likely land with the Pittsburgh Penguins. That can make this an easy compromise point of 300 shots.
In 2008-09, Phil Kessel’s last year as a Boston Bruin, he was sniping at a 15.5% clip which is unsustainable. He also had strung together three straight shooting percentage seasons in the low 12’s with Toronto through 2013-14, so again we can easily pencil Kessel in for a 12.25 shooting percentage with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2015-16. Using this projection on career norms Kessel should then score around 37 goals.
These are basic arithmetic projections so no advanced metrics were used. Having adjusted goal totals of 33 and 37 means 35 goals will be aour mean data point. We can couple this with the 64 total points identified through projections and before any variables are added place Kessel’s projected stat line for the Pittsburgh Penguins at 35 goals and 29 assists in 82 GP.
Kessel also has averaged about 1/3 of his points on the power play. So, remove 20 points from that 64, and to make rounding easier, we’ll add 45 points to the top two lines at even strength for the upcoming season.
We then end up with about 20 points on the power play and 45 points at even strength, this will likely create roughly 50 more points compiled by the power play defensemen, center, and wing that Kessel will be paired with. You can potentially add as many as 20 more points to each players statline versus replacement of the pedestrian numbers of their RW2 last year.
These predictions are using Kessel’s prior supporting cast. For sake of argument let’s look at the stats bump that James Neal received after joining the Pittsburgh Penguins as a control. Neal has a career average of .73 points and .38 goals per game, but these are misleading, as there is a clear uptick in production while playing alongside Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby.
Neal averaged .44 goals per game as a Penguin and .33 goals per game as a Star and Predator. Neal also averaged .92 points per game as a Penguin and .60 goals per game as a Star and Predator. This represents a 25% increase in goals and a 35% increase in points as a Penguin for James Neal.
Using the .25 goal multiplier and .35 point multiplier it’s totally within reason to expect a statline for Phil Kessel in 2015-16 of 44 goals and 86 points. That statline would place Kessel in the top 2 in goals and points for the 2014-15 season, or totally worth the $6.8 million he is on the hook for this year.
Next: Pens Aiming for Skill in 2015-16. Hockey Traditionalists Need Not Apply