Pittsburgh Penguins: Decisions Looming on Roles of Kunitz and Dupuis
By Mike Necciai
At this point, it’s safe to say that the Pittsburgh Penguins no longer have a lack of top-six wings to accompany Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. However, the issue of bloated, likely unmovable veteran contracts remain and it’s going to force some interesting decisions this fall.
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Chris Kunitz and Pascal Dupuis are now in their mid-30’s, and while we’re unsure of what to expect from Dupuis after his back-to-back injury riddled seasons, Kunitz showed a severe drop-off in production last season that could bleed into 2015-16. As it seems right now, both will be active on the Pittsburgh Penguins roster next season, and Mike Johnston will be tasked with finding the best way to utilize them.
The consensus for the moment is that Phil Kessel, David Perron, Patric Hornqvist, and Sergei Plotnikov will round out the top-six in terms of the wing position. That leaves a third line of Brandon Sutter centering Kunitz and Dupuis. I’ve recently touched on this lineup and stated that I could see that third line combo becoming one of the best in the league next season, but I could also see it being exactly opposite of that based on the production of both Kunitz and Dupuis while away from Sidney Crosby.
Before looking at some numbers that reflect how impactful both players can or cannot be away from Sid, let’s consider an out-of-the box way of thinking that the Pittsburgh Penguins may have to employ. By most standards, your top-six is looked at as your scoring lines, with your third line being a checking and defensive trio, and your fourth line bringing energy and toughness. At least that has been the thought process that has embodied the world of professional hockey for as long as most can recall.
Lately, though, teams are catching on to the concept of simply dressing your best twelve forwards. Do you want a balance of skill, character, and toughness? Sure. Do you want your most skilled players surrounded by the most talented supporting cast possible? Of course. However, if accomplishing either of those comes at the cost of production, NHL teams are shying away from tradition and simply looking for what works best for their roster.
Analytics Say Kunitz and Dupuis May End Up in the Pittsburgh Penguins Top-Six
That brings us back to where Kunitz and Dupuis fit the mold with the Pittsburgh Penguins. Consider the following chart that contains data from the last five seasons. (stats via stats.hockeyanalysis.com)
The important stat to consider here is their goals-for per sixty-minutes (GF/60). It’s abundantly clear that both players have recognized an immense upgrade in production playing alongside Sid. On the flip side, Crosby’s metrics stay fairly flat whether on the ice with these two or not, so it doesn’t seem impact him negatively. In fact, his GF/60 increased a bit when paired with Dupuis.
It’s also important to note how impressive it is that Crosby can maintain those types of numbers despite who his line mates are.
Given the current state of the Pittsburgh Penguins, is it really out of the question to think that the Kunitz-Crosby-Dupuis trio could be reunited?
I personally don’t like the idea of that line, as I’d love to see a combination of Kessel, Perron, and Hornqvist alongside number 87. However, if it means getting the most out of your players, the Pens may want to considering something like this for their top-nine…
Kunitz – Crosby – Dupuis
Plotnikov – Malkin – Kessel
Perron – Sutter – Hornqvist
I know, the first thing you’re thinking is that there is no way David Perron or Patric Hornqvist should be shifted from a top-six role for two aging wingers. However, the teams that are most effective in this league cycle their best nine forwards in scoring roles with periodic contribution from the fourth line. So, in essence, rather than worrying about the top-six, the Pens have the depth to run a potent top-nine.
Keep in mind, the Chicago Blackhawks played Patrick Sharp on the third line periodically as well. There is no reason not to put players in the best position to succeed.
There will be a lot of combinations and shuffling that occurs throughout training camp and it could continue into the first few months of the season. I recommend not concerning yourself as much with the role of top-six, but rather looking at what placement gets the most production out of your lineup.
I’m not necessarily in favor of reuniting Kunitz and Dupuis with Sid, but if it means a more balanced attack for the Pittsburgh Penguins then sign me up. And, considering their production with Sid and lack of production without, the best option for the Pens may be reassembling what was once the highest scoring line in hockey.
Next: Ian Cole is Poised for His Increased Role in 2015-16