For the Pittsburgh Penguins, and likely the entire league, the days of the 200-point seasons are long behind us. In realty, even the days of the 125-point seasons are long behind us. The last NHL player to score more than 125 points in a single season was Jaromir Jagr with the in 1998-99. Since 2000, there have been only ten instances of an NHL player scoring more than 110 points. These individual seasons with more than 110 points were compiled by only seven players that are listed below.
Jaromir Jagr – 2000-01/2005-06
Joe Sakic – 2000-01
Joe Thornton – 2005-06/2006-07
Sidney Crosby – 2006-07
Alex Ovechkin – 2007-08/2008-09
Evgeni Malkin – 2008-09
Henrik Sedin – 2009-10
Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin each recorded a 109-point season along the way as well, but it’s not hard to see that NHL scoring is down. The highest scoring season by someone not named Mario Lemieux or Wayne Gretzky was Steve Yzerman with 155 points in 1988-89. Yzerman averaged an unimaginable 1.93 points-per-game (PPG) that season. To put this in perspective, Mario Lemiuex averaged 1.88 and Wayne Gretzky 1.92 PPG for their careers.
Let’s take a look at a few of the highest scoring seasons for both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin and consider league leaders since 1999-00.
Sidney Crosby
2006-07 – 120 Points (1.52 PPG)
2009-10 – 109 Points (1.35 PPG)
2012-13 – 56 Points (1.56 PPG)
Evgeni Malkin
2007-08 – 106 Points (1.29 PPG)
2008-09 – 113 Points (1.38 PPG)
2011-12 – 109 points (1.45 PPG)
Highest PPG Since 1999-00
2000-01 – 1.49 PPG (Jaromir Jagr)
2005-06 – 1.49 PPG (Jaromir Jagr)
2005-06 – 1.54 PPG (Joe Thornton)
2006-07 – 1.52 PPG (Sidney Crosby)
2011-12 – 1.45 PPG (Evgeni Malkin)
2012-13 – 1.56 PPG (Sidney Crosby)
Using these averages over the the previous fifteen plus years it can be determined that the chances of Sid or Geno cracking the 125 point mark are slim to none. Despite what history tells us, this information has not prevented the fans of the Pittsburgh Penguins from projecting astronomical stats and goal totals for their superstars.
Lets look at the possible projections for Penguins scoring in the 2015-16 season.
Having an elite Sniper on Malkin’s wing did provide him with an uptick in scoring. Geno saw an increase of .1 PPG while flanked by James Neal, which would provide an additional 8.2 points averaged across an entire NHL season. It should also be noted that as of today Malkin has averaged 1.2 PPG in his career, meaning his highest scoring seasons are not too much of an outlier. Adjusting for the lockout season and his torn ACL in 201-11, Malkin has averaged 73 games played per season and 88 points.
I previously looked into the addition of Phil Kessel to the Pittsburgh Penguins and what his stats correlate to in comparison to James Neal. It was noted that a .35 point multiplier over James Neal was about where Kessel would fall. Factoring in that Malkin and Neal shared scoring on over 60% of points scored with both of them on the ice, it’s within reason to say that if Kessel plays on Geno’s line a point multiplier of .21 for Geno is within reason. Therefore, a point total of 106 in 73 games played, or 1.49 PPG is totally within reach.
If Malkin plays 82 games and scores at a 1.49 PPG clip then 122 points would likely be his ceiling for this season. That point total would be the third highest since 1999, trailing only Thornton and Jagr with 125 and 123, respectively, in 2005-06.
Using Kessel on Crosby’s line and exchanging numbers is hard because Crosby has never played alongside someone with the unique offense first skill set that Kessel brings to the table. Marian Hossa presents the most skilled player that Sidney Crosby has played with on a consistent basis and his multiplier is staggering. Versus career averages, Hossa, in his 20 game playoff run riding shotgun to Sid jumped his very static career average of .9 PPG to 1.3 PPG. That’s a 44% increase.
Playoff scoring is usually lower but Sid also averaged 1.35 PPG in that run, or .01 PPG less than his career average. This likely shows that putting Kessel on Sid’s line would increase his scoring but may not put a bump into Sid’s stats.
Sid has never played 82 games in a season, his high coming in at 81 twice, and he has averaged about 74 games-per year. Using non-lockout and concussion years this comes out to exactly 100 points. It is not out of the question that Sid can benefit from having Kessel on the top line, but from a pure points standpoint if Geno can stay healthy he should be the favorite to win the Art Ross with Kessel in tow.
Next: Offseason Rants: Hockey Analytics