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Pittsburgh Penguins: Roster Cuts Coming, Lineup Predictions

By Mike Necciai |

Personally, I’ve wondered why the Pittsburgh Penguins have maintained such a large training camp roster while so many others have started dwindling down. And, Dave Molinari of the Post Gazette answered that for us this morning.

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Mike Johnston and Jim Rutherford understand the challenge they’ll face this week. The Pittsburgh Penguins will play three games in three nights, facing the Montreal Canadiens, Tampa Bay Lightning and Detroit Red Wings. They’ll travel to Quebec City, Johnstown and then back to Pittsburgh. So, it’s easy to see why bodies are needed.

Rutherford also mentioned that they’d like to be as close to their opening day lineup as possible on Wednesday night. The rosters for that game were released today and don’t necessarily reflect what the Pens will deploy for opening night but that doesn’t mean decisions will have already been made. Barring a spectacular performance this week by a fringe player that launches them into the conversation, how do things shake out for October 8 knowing what we do at this point?

Pittsburgh Penguins Opening Night Forwards

According to Mike Johnston, there are still two or three forward jobs up for grabs. Of course, that number changes in a month or so when Eric Fehr returns but for the time being, we’ll assess how this could play out.

The top line is essentially set at this point. You can bank on seeing Chris Kunitz and Phil Kessel flanking Sidney Crosby and whether or not you agree that Kunitz is capable of a bounce back year, it’s impossible to argue the way those three have meshed so far. Kunitz knows how to play with Sid and Kessel knows how to play with great players because he is one. Makes sense, right?

Sep 22, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Roland McKeown (55) checks Pittsburgh Penguins forward Sergei Plotnikov (R) away from the puck during the third period at the CONSOL Energy Center. The Penguins won 7-3. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The second line isn’t as easy to determine but we have a good idea of how it will look. While Sergei Plotnikov has made great strides throughout camp and looks poised to have an impact this season, I don’t believe he’s ready for a top-six role. Pascal Dupuis is another name that’s fighting for that spot and he has played well. However, I fully anticipate Mike Johnston limiting his ice time to start the season. David Perron looks like a different player from what we saw down the stretch of 2014-15 and he’s most likely going to earn that spot. My top six is as follows…

Kunitz – Crosby – Kessel
Perron – Malkin – Hornqvist

The bottom-six is where things get a bit tricky. This is where the two or three roster spots that Johnston referenced will come into play and I’m under the impression that he means placement more than spots for prospects.

Beau Bennett has put together a solid camp and found himself paired with Nick Bonino throughout practices. Despite Bonino falling ill and not playing much preseason hockey, the two look very good together in workouts. So, expect them to occupy the third line for the start of the regular season and Dupuis is the most likely candidate for left-wing. Considering how everyone has looked in camp so far, I foresee the bottom-six looking as follows…

Dupuis – Bonino – Bennett
Plotnikov – Cullen – Sheary

I won’t be surprised at all if we see the likes of Bobby Farnham or Scott Wilson playing alongside Cullen and Plotnikov but Sheary has been the most impressive so far. Bryan Rust is another viable possibility but he has been less-than-impressive so far this fall. The performance of that group throughout the remaining week of camp will be quite telling for who will receive the nod. At this point, no one has cemented themselves into the lineup.

Pittsburgh Penguins Defense

At the moment, the only pairing that seems set in stone is Kris Letang and Olli Maatta. That pairing has been a foregone conclusion since the end of 2014-15. So, how will the rest of the group formulate when camp is all said and done?

Though Mike Johnston hasn’t made it official, Ian Cole will occupy the second defensive pairing. And, despite a rough preseason performance, Brian Dumoulin has looked decent throughout camp and should start the season alongside him. I visited this topic a few months ago and had the two of them paired back then as well, mainly based on how underlying numbers reflected their play. It’s a good fit.

That leaves a third pairing with as many question marks as possibilities. The viable candidates are Ben Lovejoy, Derrick Pouliot, Rob Scuderi, Sergei Gonchar, Adam Clendening and Tim Erixon. If it were me, I’d put Scuderi on waivers and not sign Gonchar past his PTO. Clendening and Lovejoy would be my third pairing with Pouliot and Erixon as numbers seven and eight. That leaves Pouliot with the chance to earn a spot in the starting rotation. However, the Pens will likely go a different direction.

Mike Johnston wants Pouliot to succeed. He sees him as a future star in this league and a crucial part of Pittsburgh’s blue line. And, that’s what everyone is hoping he develops into. Tonight’s matchup in Quebec City vs. the Canadiens will give him another shot, as Johnston has paired him with Letang. After calling him out publicly, he’s giving the youngster every possible chance to prove himself.

With all of that being said, I see the Pittsburgh Penguins going with the following to start the season.

Maatta – Letang
Dumoulin – Cole
Pouliot – Lovejoy
Clendening – Gonchar (Johnston plans to carry eight defensemen)

Scuderi and Erixon will be placed on waivers. Yes, it’s a bold prediction to think they’ll go that route with Scuderi but I can’t imagine they’ll want to expose Clendening to waivers and the $900,000 or so they’ll free up in cap space will allow them to sign Gonchar and keep him around for mentoring purposes.

We’ll learn much more in the coming days. I’d look for a lot of news around roster moves between now and Wednesday’s game at Consol Energy Center. By the time we reach the October 2nd game in Carolina the tough decisions should be in the past and we’ll know what to expect to see in Dallas on October 8th.

Next: 5 Valuable Trade Assets for the Pens in 2015-16

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