Pittsburgh Penguins: 2016 Stanley Cup Final Preview

With the Penguins’ Game 7 Victory over the Tampa Bay Lighting, they’ve advanced to their first Stanley Cup Final since the 2009 Championship season. Let’s see how the Pens match up with their new opponents, the San Jose Sharks.

For the first time since 2009, the Pittsburgh Penguins are Eastern Conference Champions. They defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 2-1 on Thursday to earn a spot against the San Jose Sharks in the 2016 Stanley Cup Final.

During their playoff run, the Pens have exorcised several demons and overcame many challenges that have haunted them in recent years.

They ousted the New York Rangers, who ended their last two postseasons. They defeated their arch-rival and the President’s Trophy winners, the Washington Capitals. Finally, they defeated the defending conference champions, the Tampa Bay Lightning.

In addition to their opponents, the Penguins have overcome other weaknesses. They used their speed and skill to defeat physical teams that have disrupted them in the past. They also finally began closing series out at home, including their first Game 7 home victory since 1995. Before Thursday, the Penguins were only 2-7 in Game 7s played in Pittsburgh.

Despite all of their Eastern Conference success, the Penguins’ toughest challenge lies ahead. The San Jose Sharks are a fast, talented team coming out of the NHL’s usually-stronger Western Conference. How do the Pens stack up? Let’s compare the team’s offense, defense and special teams to find out.

Offense

This season the Penguins have shown off their tremendous offensive speed and skill. However, the Sharks also have been a powerful offensive force this season. So who has the advantage?

A review of the regular season stats shows the Penguins and Sharks are remarkably similar offensively. The Penguins were 3rd in all of hockey with 241 goals during the season, or 2.94 goals per game. The Sharks? They were 4th in the NHL with 237 goals, or 2.89 goals per game.

Beyond goals, the Penguins were 1st in the NHL in shots for per game at 33.2, while the Sharks were 11th at 30.4 shots per game.

Since the playoffs began, the teams have an identical 12-6 records. The Sharks are 1st in goals with the Penguins right behind them in 2nd place.

These offensive similarities shouldn’t be surprising. The Penguins and Sharks run similar offensive schemes. This series will feature open, fast-paced hockey much like we saw in the Eastern Conference Final.

Defense

Just as on offense, there is not much separating the teams in the defensive zone.

During the regular season, the Penguins were 6th in the NHL with 199 goals allowed. The Shark were not far behind with 207 goals against, good for 11th in the league. However, the Sharks were 2nd in shots against during the regular season and playoffs, only allowing 27.3 and 27.1 per game, respectively.

While the Sharks’ defense is intimidating, the Lightning defense ranked 5th in the regular season, and the Pens’ offense was able to carry a majority of the play to vastly outshoot Tampa Bay.

Another potential concern is the loss of Trevor Daley. The Penguins played acceptably without Daley against Tampa Bay, but the Bolts had a depleted offense. The same may not be true with San Jose.

The goaltender comparison is also incredibly close. Martin Jones, the former L.A. Kings backup, has a 2.12 goals against average and a .919 save percentage. Meanwhile Matt Murray has a nearly identical 2.22 GAA with a .924 save percentage.

I think Pittsburgh has a slight edge here. They shut down an incredible Capitals offense and held off the Lightning for a large majority of the series. I think San Jose’s offense is similar to these teams and the Penguins have shown they can stop them.

Advantage: Pittsburgh

Special Teams

While the offense and defense of the Pens and Sharks are very similar, their special teams show some divergence. San Jose has a prolific power play. It was 3rd in the regular season and has been 2nd overall this playoffs – operating at 27.0% in the postseason.

The Penguins, meanwhile, have struggled on the man advantage. They are now 6th in the postseason, and that is after a respectable showing in the Tampa Bay series. As we saw, the Pens’ powerplay was next to useless against the Caps in the second round.

On the other side of the man advantage, the teams are closer together. The Penguins are 5th in the playoffs, killing 83.6% of penalties. The Sharks are not far behind, placing 7th with an 80.4% kill rate.

This is a clear cut advantage for the Sharks. The Penguins need to be careful not to take the ill-advised penalties we have seen earlier in the playoffs if they are to have a chance.

Advantage: San Jose

What to Expect

Much like the Eastern Conference Finals, there is not a lot separating these teams. San Jose has the advantage on special teams, while Pittsburgh has been excellent in 5-on-5 play.

This will be Pittsburgh’s toughest challenge. San Jose can match Pittsburgh’s speed and has an advantage in size as well.

There are several things the Penguins must do if they are to win the Stanley Cup. They have to stay out of the box, play strong in front of Murray, and get shots on net.

If the Pens can check off all of those boxes, then I think they have a real shot to win. Even so, these teams are incredibly evenly matched.

Next: Pittsburgh Penguins Move On to Stanley Cup Final

I believe this will be a long series. It will take everything the Pens have to bring home the Cup. I think the Sharks begin the series with the advantage, but smart play from the Penguins could lead them to victory.