The 16-15-5 Penguins get out of the gate of the short Christmas break with a home and home with the New York Islanders (13-15-7). While technically still in the playoff race, the Isles are a shell of the alleged playoff team they were last year.
Pittsburgh has lost the last three matchups against the Islanders. All three were one-goal games.
However, the last two Penguins wins over New York were in a similar home and home over the course of a few days just after Christmas in 2023; one of those wins was the Kris Letang six assist game in a 7-0 blowout.
So what's the magic formula to snap the skid against the Isles and continue the winning ways of late?
Set the Tone
Sometimes when you're on a roll, the best thing for you is to keep playing. The Penguins have been playing a lot of games since Thanksgiving comparative to the rest of the league, and yet they've continued to collect points along the way.
Coming off a touchdown win over Philly, the Penguins find an Islanders team that gave up a touchdown of their own. It was not to the future NFL MVP, Josh Allen...it was to the lowly Buffalo Sabres. The break is the perfect reset for the Islanders and could possibly halt the momentum Pittsburgh has been creating over the last month
Scoring the first goal and getting the legs churning early are paramount in this one. Kick them while they're down and don't let them back up. Don't let them regain their confidence early.
Put Their Special Teams in the Spotlight
This is a spicy one that might be a bit confusing, but let's look at some details.
The Islanders' special teams are awful. Don't take it from me, though. Take it from this clearly disgruntled Islanders fan.
The Islanders special teams are an abomination.
— Koby Schechter ♑️✡️🇺🇸🇮🇱🇦🇺 (@koby_schechter) October 20, 2024
New York is last in the NHL in power play percentage AND penalty kill percentage. Both. Yes. Dead last in both.
According to ESPN stats, the Isles' PP% is 12%. That's worse than the Penguins of 2023-24. Woof. That mark currently puts them as the 17th worst power play in NHL history.
To make things even better, their penalty kill % is 64.4%, That is currently on pace to be the worst PK% in NHL history by almost 4% (the 1979-80 Kings had a 68.2% according to StatMuse.com).
Any time players are in the penalty box, take advantage. The Penguins have been great on the power play this season. That needs to continue against their goaltenders who have been solid at 5-on-5.
Ilya Sorokin's save percentage is north of .910 during 5-on-5, but it dips down drastically to .760 on the penalty kill. Same thing with Semyon Varlamov - save percentage over .900 during 5-on-5, but below .740 on the kill.
Shorthanded opportunities will also be there for Pittsburgh. With three shorthanded goals this season, bad power plays often pave the way for rushes the other way (as we learned several times last season with our beloved Penguins).
Keep the Top Line Hot
The top line has been on fire as of late. Crosby, Rust, and Rakell seem to just trade points and goals every single night. The Penguins need to re-establish the elite level of play against the Islanders and pick up right where they left off before the Christmas break.
Sidney Crosby has 9 points (2 goals, 7 assists) in his last four games.
Bryan Rust has 7 points (3 goals, 4 assists) in his last four games.
Bryan Rust is HOT right now. 🔥
— NHL (@NHL) December 24, 2024
He's got seven goals in his last eight games. pic.twitter.com/ZNR7mFLnko
Rickard Rakell has 7 points (3 goals, 4 assists) in his last four games.
The top dogs have been firing on all cylinders. Why stop now?
The Penguins head to Elmont, NY for the first of two straight against the Islanders. Saturday's contest is set for 7:30pm EST. Sunday's game at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh will be at 5:30pm EST.