The Pittsburgh Penguins have entered the twilight zone. No back-to-back wins since mid-December. Losses to bottom feeder teams. Rumors of fire sales.
It seems to be a dark time in Pittsburgh. But is it really?
Draft Lottery Odds
As of Sunday, January 26th, the Penguins are fourth worst in the NHL in projected point percentage. Only the Sabres, Blackhawks, and Sharks are worse.
If the Penguins continue to lose in the final 31 games of the regular season, they will have extended odds at a top draft choice in the coming 2025 NHL Draft.
Right now as things currently sit, the Penguins have a 6.5% chance to secure the 1st overall pick in the draft. They can improve those odds with more losing.
Hit rates on top three picks are very high, so the Penguins should be looking to deal assets, continue to do exactly what they've done (lose), and bid for one of those top selections.
Oh, and that current 6.5% number - the last time the Penguins had similar odds for the 1st overall pick?
Sidney Crosby in 2005 at 6.15% odds.
Quick Rebuild?
The NHL's salary cap is going up by a substantial amount in 2025. While this applies to every team in the league, it does help the Penguins who come in with an opportunity to manipulate their cap.
BREAKING: NHL announces salary cap of $88M for next season (+$4.5M) and a salary floor of $65M
— NHL News (@PuckReportNHL) June 8, 2024
If Erik Karlsson can be dealt along with his massive contract, it would open up even more chances for the Penguins to retool instead of going into a full rebuild.
Sidney Crosby will prevent the Penguins from completely rebuilding. The Captain has the final say, and his say is always to win.
While this does pose some problems in how to handle the current situation, there are some objective ways Kyle Dubas can manipulate and retool the roster to be competitive again in 2025-26.
Very few draft picks immediately make a huge contribution at the NHL level, but that's not to say the Penguins don't have intriguing prospects already. Add a few more NHL-ready youngsters with some crafty trades and next season the Penguins could be competitive.