Mike Sullivan Set Pittsburgh Up for Failure Against Tampa Bay Tonight

Pitt basketball lost a heartbreaker to Louisville. The Penguins got their rear ends handed to them by a dirty Ottawa team. And the Steelers continued their eight year pantomime of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

January 11th, 2025 was not a good day for Pittsburgh sports.

The day turns to January 12th now, and the Penguins have the hearts of Pittsburgh hanging in the balance pending their performance against the Tampa Bay Lightning today.

Sitting at 22-15-3, the Lightning have vaulted themselves into third place in the Atlantic division with more games in hand than anyone else in the Eastern Conference. The Penguins, minus their miraculous detonation of the Death Star on Thursday, are going in the opposite direction in 2025.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of the best teams in the NHL, but glancing at the standings won't necessarily tell you that. They lead the NHL in goals per game with 3.65 and they are top 10 in goals allowed per game with 2.75. Their goalies are a huge part of that number, stopping 91% of shots this season (5th in the NHL).

Pittsburgh's effort against the Ottawa Senators was pathetic, but perhaps the most detrimental part of the beatdown was the coaching decisions. Mike Sullivan deciding to challenge for goalie interference on what looked to be very minimal contact set the Penguins back for the rest of the game.

Of course it doesn't help that the first shot for the opposing team went in the back of the net, again. And when I say "again", boy, do I mean again. Perhaps a question mark is more apt for such a statement. "Again?!"

For all you non-math majors out there, that's a 22.7% rate. Almost a quarter of games played this season the Penguins have given up a goal on the first shot.

To put that in perspective, that's a better shooting percentage than Rickard Rakell (20%). The opposing team has a better chance of scoring a goal on their first shot of the game than Rickard Rakell has to score a goal on any shot he takes. Here's your friendly reminder that Tricky Ricky is tied for 10th in the NHL in goals (with Jake Guentzel, by the way - that trade worked out fine).

Sullivan's decision to pull Alex Nedeljkovic down 5-0 was a puzzling move given they were in the front end of a back to back. Tristan Jarry stopped all five shots he faced through the last 33 minutes of the game, but that effort hardly matters.

Regardless of what you think of Jarry, it doesn't make any sense to try and salvage a 5-0 game when you have another game the next day. It creates a predicament. If you start Nedeljkovic today, then you're tossing in a goalie with depleted confidence and 28 minutes of ice time from the previous day. Start Jarry and he's not fresh from playing 32 minutes the day before. That's called a lose-lose.

It would have done just as well to let Nedeljkovic finish the game. It was a wash after it was 4-0 anyway. Take your medicine and win tomorrow.

This seems to be the first in-game coaching decision that Mike Sullivan has balked on in a while. Last season he was under fire for the power play failure and other problems, but this season it seems like he's flown under the radar.

Sully pulled the right strings to get the team back on track in December, but now the team has lost five of six and are in danger of losing another one due to a rash coaching decision on Saturday.

The Penguins' effort tonight will likely determine what happens the rest of the year. Who knows what Kyle Dubas will do if the Penguins fail to win tonight. There are tantalizing trade pieces that could return a haul. Here's hoping that the black and gold can pull one out tonight so that doesn't have to happen.

Puck drop is scheduled for 5pm EST. The Penguins have not determined whom they will start in net at the time of this article's publishing.