The Pittsburgh Penguins currently sit with the 8th best odds to win the 2025 Draft Lottery as the final week of the season begins.
The Penguins have two games remaining - one this afternoon against the Boston Bruins and the last against the Washington Capitals on Thursday.
Where the Penguins are right now puts them in a position to either rise or fall in the tanking endeavors, and they'll need some help from the outside. But, as much as it's unfavorable to seek the help of others for your own benefit, the Penguins have a chance to sink lower.
With the Penguins having 78 points with two games to go, here are the scenarios for the Penguins to improve their draft position.
The Longshot Kraken
Thanks to an incredible effort by Philipp Grubauer in the Kraken's shootout win over the red hot St. Louis Blues on Saturday night, the Penguins still have a very minute chance to sink below Seattle in the overall standings.
Seattle plays the Los Angeles Kings in their final game of the season on Tuesday night trailing the Penguins by two points. Thanks to tiebreakers, if the Penguins and Kraken finish the regular season with the same point total, the Kraken would finish ahead of Pittsburgh in the standings.
With 76 points, the Kraken need a win and two Penguins regulation losses for the Penguins to finish below them. One Penguins overtime and the dream is gone.
As for the game itself on Tuesday, the Kings have nothing to play for. They own the tiebreaker over the Edmonton Oilers, whom they are confirmed to play in the first round. This means the Kings have reason to rest key pieces of their lineup.
Additionally, the game will be in Seattle, and the Kings are substantially weaker on the road than they are at home. It's a long shot, but it's possible.
Chances the Penguins finish below Seattle: 5%
Filthy Philadelphia
We never wish any semblance of winning on Philadelphia in any context, but in this context, Flyers wins would actually mean they're losing. Thus, we will root accordingly.
The Flyers beat the Sabres in a shootout on Saturday to pull within three points of the Penguins with a game in hand. Their final three matchups are in Ottawa, home against Columbus, and in Buffalo.
Ottawa has little to play for, Columbus might have everything or nothing to play for, and Buffalo would rather lose than win.
This scenario is complex, so follow along.
As of this morning, the Penguins own the tiebreaker over the Flyers thanks to Pittsburgh having two more regulation wins than Philadelphia. However, for the Flyers to jump the Penguins, they would need to win at least two more games.
If the Flyers manage to win two more games in regulation while the Penguins lose out in regulation, then the Flyers would tie the Penguins with 23 regulation wins, and the next tiebreaker would be head-to-head points, which the Flyers own due to their overtime loss to Evgeni Malkin.
So, in that instance, if the Penguins and Flyers end up tied, Philadelphia would jump Pittsburgh.
Now, insightfully, you would say it's impossible to tie with regulation finishes due to an odd point discrepancy (three points). To which I would say, "Very keen of you."
This tiebreaker is an insurance policy for a very specific reason. The Penguins want to maximize tanking profit, right? So, naturally, we would ideally desire the Sabres and Flyers to jump us in the standings.
That last game for Philadelphia - the one against Buffalo - we want that game to end in overtime with the Sabres victorious. But if that's not the case and Philadelphia wins in regulation, then all the Penguins would need is for one additional Philly win and pick up one or less points themselves.
Ideal scenario: Penguins lose out (regulation or overtime) and Philly beats Ottawa and Columbus in regulation, then loses in overtime to Buffalo.
Chances the Penguins finish below Philadelphia: 15%
Go, Go, Buffalo
The Sabres trail the Penguins by just one point and have a game in hand. Their final three games are in Tampa Bay, home against Toronto, and home against Philly.
These progressions do not favor the Penguins, unless, by happenstance, they do. I'll explain how that is.
Tampa Bay and Toronto (ironically Buffalo's opponents in succession) are separated by four points with the same amount of games left as of Sunday morning. If Tampa Bay should beat Buffalo, then it would force the hand of Toronto to beat Buffalo, which wouldn't favor Pittsburgh.
However, should the Sabres beat the Lightning later today, it would mean Toronto all but locks up the Atlantic division and would mean their game against Buffalo would be meaningless.
Theoretically, much rests on the Sabres/Lightning game this afternoon, as it will determine the mindset of the Maple Leafs the next game.
The bottom line is the Sabres need to net one point on the Penguins in any way. The Penguins could win out and the Sabres could win two and lose in overtime and still jump the Penguins via tiebreaker.
This is the most friendly scenario for the Penguins. Now, the odds of the Sabres beating the Lightning and Maple Leafs back-to-back is slim, but not impossible. The final game against Philly might not need to be a Buffalo win depending on how things shake out.
This scenario is most likely to benefit the Penguins.
Chances the Penguins finish below Buffalo: 45%
Ducks Stay Afloat
Scarily, the Ducks and Penguins are tied with 78 points, however, the Ducks own the tiebreaker and have a game in hand. Their final three games are home against Colorado, then away at Minnesota and Winnipeg.
All three are playoff teams, but none of them will have anything to play for barring a miracle comeback by Calgary to overtake Minnesota, which has about a 1% chance of happening.
The Ducks just need to equal or exceed the Penguins' points and they'll stay where they are. Worst case scenario is the Penguins out-net the Ducks in points and finish 9th in the draft lottery odds.
Chance the Penguins finish below Anaheim: 75%
Where will Pittsburgh Finish?
I love hypothetical scenarios, especially when they entail the grim, dark future of a restless franchise like the Penguins in a disgruntled city like Pittsburgh.
My official prediction is that the Penguins finish with the 6th best odds for the Draft Lottery, sinking below Buffalo and Philadelphia.
I think Buffalo finds a stroke of genius in their final games and manages to jump Pittsburgh. Additionally, I think the Flyers are bad at everything, including losing. They'll mistakenly win their way to jumping the Penguins and hurt their tank.
At the end of the day, it's always sunny in Philadelphia...until the drought demands the sorrows of rain. Then, the rain never comes, and they're left parched, desiring talent that their sister city poaches from them.
Such novelty. So rich.
Get to screen hopping, Penguins fans. This final week will be a blur.