Do you hear that? Off in the distance? The sound of troops, soldiers walking slowly in rhythm?
From the icy caverns of the Allegheny River, their trek has been longwinded. But their rendezvous is certain, and it has arrived: The March of the Penguins begins tomorrow.
The Stat
Allow me to introduce you to The Stat. The only stat that matters.
In the month of March in the Sidney Crosby era, any time the Penguins have had a point percentage above 50%, they made the playoffs. In the three seasons they didn't (2006, 2023, and 2024), the Penguins missed the playoffs.
The month of March is the most critical month of the year for the Penguins. Is it because they've given it a nickname akin to a popular movie that just so happened to release the same year Sidney Crosby entered the NHL?
I'm not here to mince words. That's the exact reason why.
.@penguins captain Sidney Crosby continued his @nhl MVP push with a torrid performance in March #Pens #MVP pic.twitter.com/6c8FnnQAQJ
— Penguins PR (@PenguinsPR) April 1, 2016
The History of The Stat
The Penguins have 14 games this March, starting Saturday at home against the Boston Bruins.
Fourteen games in the March of the Penguins era is the second least amount of games Pittsburgh has played in the month. They played 14 in 2022, the last time they made the playoffs, and 2006, Crosby's first season.
The only time they've played less was in 2009 when they went 10-1-2 and went on to win the Stanley Cup.
Many will remember perhaps the first ode to the parading Penguins when they went 15-0-0, in 2013. That was the year of the lockout, and only 48 games were played that season. Because of their streak, the Pens finished atop the Eastern Conference with a point percentage only behind Chicago.
In 2023, the Penguins had an exactly 50% point percentage in March, going 7-7-1. If they exceeded the 50% mark, they would have made the playoffs. They missed by a single point to the Florida Panthers (who, truly, deserved to be in much more than Pittsburgh).
Maybe don't blow a two goal lead to the Islanders and lose in overtime.
Fifty percent seems like a nice round number, but for The Stat to come into play, the Penguins have to muster more than half the available points to make the playoffs.
March of the Penguins: 2025 Edition
So what does this all mean? Well, it's simple: If the Penguins snag 15 or more points in the month of March, they will make the playoffs.
I don't make the rules. National Geographic does. (Awesome trailer, by the way.)
The Penguins currently sit 9 points behind the Blue Jackets and Red Wings for the final Wild Card spot (here's a shameless plug telling you to watch the Stadium Series game). There are six teams in the Penguins' way: the Rangers, Senators, Bruins, Canadiens, Flyers, and Islanders in that order.
If the Penguins operate like my little sister and do the bare minimum to get by, their 15 points to suffice The Stat would have to be met with a point percentage around 35% for the higher teams, and under 45% for the lower teams.
Is it likely? No, but again, I don't make the rules. Luc Jacquet does.
Pittsburgh has seven games in April to end the season, which do not have magical playoff-berthing powers as the ones in March do. Those games do not determine things, but they will give a direction to them.
The alternative to everything I've disclosed is that if the Penguins get 14 or less points in March, then their season is over. Interestingly, 14 points would leave them with 71 (Geno?) going into April. From there they can crash and burn and finish around that mark.
If that happens, I'd project the Penguins to be around the 7th worst team in the NHL. And that's with them doing the most without sufficing The Stat. It's not great for you tank fans (I'm one, don't worry), but it's still a top 10 pick with a chance to be higher with the lottery.
My Prescription for March
Enjoy it. Just enjoy it.
Whether you're pro-tank or pro-hope, enjoy the ride. The Stat will decide the Penguins' fate, so why worry about one or the other in the meantime.
It's March, for crying out loud. Be happy. It's the mad dash for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, baseball season is on its way, March Madness is coming, the NBA is still boring, and NFL free agency opens up! It's one of the best times to be a sports fan, but namely, it's a great time to be a Penguins fan.
Why? Because we've got 14 Hockey Nights in Pittsburgh.
Sit back, watch, and let the March of the Penguins tell the tale of the 2025 season.