The Jake Guentzel Trade: A Retrospective

Most of the time, retrospectives usually take place around a decade after an event. However, the nature of the Jake Guentzel trade gives us an opportunity to look back at what was initially perceived as a franchise-sinking moment.

As much as we can. Let's take an objective approach - devoid of emotions - and systematically analyze the Jake Guentzel trade as it has panned out over the course of the last 10 months.

First, who is Jake Guentzel?

Maybe I'm preaching to the choir, but it's never a bad idea to take a look back at history, especially when it involves an integral piece to the Penguins' Stanley Cup victory in 2017.

Jake Guentzel was an American-born 3rd round draft pick by the Penguins back in 2013. He was a highly touted prospect whose lack of size was compensated with great vision and high hockey IQ.

He made his NHL debut on November 21, 2016 against the New York Rangers and fittingly introduced himself to the league in a way that would be an omen of things to come. One would be apt to say, "Shades of Mario."

First shift. First shot. First Goal.

This was just a sneak peak at what was to come for the Pittsburgh rookie.

Fast forward to the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs and Jake Guentzel does this: 13 goals, 8 assists, 5 game-winning goals, a hat trick, and a shorty in 25 playoff games en route to Pittsburgh's back-to-back Cup victory.

His 21 points are tied for the most in a playoff debut by an American in NHL history. The definition of clutch.

I would put more highlights from 2017, but then this article would be flooded with more videos than words, somehow. That's how good rookie Jake Guentzel was. The tweet's final sentence about the best winger to ever play with Crosby is understandably up for debate, but the proof is in the pudding.

In his 8 seasons with Pittsburgh, Jake tallied 466 points (219 goals, 247 assists) while working on Sid's line. His sophomore regular season was fine, but in the 2018 playoffs, he was on pace to smash what he did in his rookie season.

In half the games as 2017, Guentzel put up 10 goals and 11 assists in just two playoff series including a four-goal Game 6 on the road against the Flyers to move on to the Eastern Conference Semifinal.

Events Surrounding the Trade

There's plenty more to talk about with Guentzel between 2018 and 2024, but this isn't a bibliography. Come back in 12 years for that. Now let's move to 2024 when the fateful trade occurred.

Regarded as one of the elite goal scorers in the NHL, several mock trades had Guentzel included around February 2024 due to the hemorrhaging Penguins at that point in the season.

He was point-per-game with 22 goals and 30 assists in 50 games with the Penguins at the time of the trade, but he was dealing with an injury that had kept him out of the lineup for almost a month.

This seemed to muddy his trade value to analysts, but the facts were the facts: Guentzel was an natural goal-scorer with a playoff pedigree that could take a needy team all the way to the Stanley Cup.

Enter the Carolina Hurricanes.

By the trade deadline there was just one thing the Hurricanes needed: a pure goal scorer. Sebastian Aho led the high shot volume Canes with 36 goals on the year, but he was the only point-per-game player at Carolina's disposal.

The defensively sound Hurricanes knew that their only option was to go all-in. Their playoff woes were not going to continue any longer. Their defensive structure was their bread and butter, but it was time to nab a proven goal-scorer.

With Guentzel in the final year of his contract, the Canes pulled the trigger and sent a haul to Pittsburgh for the fan-favorite.

After a 6-0 loss to the Washington Capitals on March 7, Kyle Dubas saw the Penguins' 28-25-8 record and hit the red button under the rallying cry of "getting younger" despite knowing the backlash he would receive.

The Details

The deal was met with conflicting opinions from Penguins fans. Trading a point-per-game, 28 year-old, fan-favorite Stanley Cup champion will have some emotion attached to it. But let's walk through the return piece by piece and see what the outlook is.

F Michael Bunting

Bunting was not particularly liked in Carolina. He posted a -15 plus/minus on a disciplined defensive team and spent his fair share of time in the penalty box with minutes rivaling that of Evgeni Malkin.

As Penguins fans have come to know, Bunting is a scrapper. He sticks his nose in on scrums, but, in a great reversal, that's something Pittsburgh desperately needed.

The near-refusal to get down and dirty by Pittsburgh in the recent years resulted in perpetual underachieving. The team was marked as having no grit or desire to play for greasy goals. Bunting changed that immediately.

I don't care who you are, this is the goal of the 2023-24 season. It embodies everything about the Penguins' feral attempt to sneak into the playoffs last year.

Bunting put up 19 points (6 goals, 11 assists) in 21 games after the trade, and he's played the physical winger role the Penguins have needed desperately.

He still has another year on his contract following this season, and he has 25 points in 43 games this season. On an aging team, his energy has been helpful to illicit the youthfulness out of the veterans.

F Vasily Ponomarev

The 22-year old Russian was a former 2nd round pick of the Hurricanes back in 2020. Ponomarev was not ranked in Carolina's top 10 prospects, but his profile was that he was good in all three zones and could play on both special teams units.

Ponomarev recorded two points in his NHL debut, a goal and an assist, as a late, same day call-up for Carolina.

Ponomarev has appeared in three games with the Penguins this season but was unnoticeable in his 27 minutes.

He remains in the AHL for now, and he is ranked the 5th best prospect in the Penguins' system right behind Owen Pickering who has been a staple at the NHL level this season. Developing more consistency will be the tell-tale of how much he can produce above Scranton-Wilkes Barre.

F Ville Koivunen

A Finnish-born lefty drafted by Carolina in the 2nd round in 2021, Ville Koivunen currently sits as the Penguins' 2nd highest ranked prospect.

He is yet to make his NHL debut, but his transition from Finland seems to be going well. He has 27 points (10 goals, 17 assists) in 32 games with Scranton-Wilkes Barre this season.

Sometimes players that come from Europe or Russia have a hard time adjusting to the smaller ice surface, especially offensive players who have less space to work with when coming to North America. You can see the substantial difference in this video while he was playing in Finland.

Koivunen's numbers in the AHL point to him figuring things out, and his ability to create goals is his selling point. He is unlikely to make the NHL roster this season, however, if the Penguins continue to spiral, he could be a late-season call up.

F Cruz Lucius

Cruz Lucius was the final objective piece of the Guentzel trade. He was a 4th round draft choice by Carolina in 2022 and is yet to play in the affiliated circuit.

Lucius is American-born and was one of the most electrifying players in his youth years. He played with the USA National U17 and U18 teams and was almost point-per-game over 65 games in that span.

He is yet to make his way into affiliated hockey. In From 2022-2023 he put up 64 points in 70 games with the University of Wisconsin Badgers. He has only played two games in 2024-25 with Arizona State University as a junior.

Lucius' greatest asset is his speed. His 6'0" 178lb frame allows him to fly all over the ice and be actively involved on the forecheck. He is a goal creator and has top-6 forward potential. In all likelihood, value will be truly realized after the Penguins' veteran core is done playing. His promise to be a contributor in years to come should be exciting for Penguins fans.

He is currently ranked 11th in the Penguins' top prospect list.

D Harrison Brunicke (44th Overall Pick in 2024)

The highlight of the draft capital the Penguins' received was a conditional 1st round pick in the 2024 draft. The Penguins were without a first round pick before the trade, and they ended up still missing out on the first round due to the condition not being met (Carolina to make Stanley Cup Final).

With the now 2nd round pick, Pittsburgh took Harrison Brunicke, a 6'2" defenseman born in South Africa (raised in Canada). Since he was drafted, he's put on over 10 pounds and profiles as a true defensive defenseman.

He plays a physical, smart game and does not get beat on defensive assignments. While his offensive numbers aren't flashy, it's almost a breath of fresh air to have a lockdown defensive prospect like Brunicke in the system. He is still just 18 years old, and he ranks as the Penguins' 6th best prospect.

2024 Conditional 5th Round Pick

This pick was omitted due to the Carolina Hurricanes failing to meet the conditions of winning the Stanley Cup final.

The Results - What Jake Guentzel Did

Guentzel appeared on the ice for the Hurricanes not long after he was traded. He came back from his injury and immediately did what Carolina hoped he would do.

Jake went ballistic with 25 points (8 goals, 17 assists) in just 17 games down the stretch for the Hurricanes.

But those numbers aren't as important as his playoff numbers, because that's why Carolina traded a haul of prospects for him. It was a rental trade, and Guentzel was a great rental. One could make an argument he was their best player.

He notched nine points (four goals, five assists) in 11 playoff games in 2024. He scored two goals in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals against the New York Rangers, but his effort was not enough to push Carolina over the top.

The Aftermath - Where Jake is Now

The Hurricanes were hopeful to turn around and re-sign Guentzel to a big contract at the conclusion of the 2024 playoffs. However, Guentzel's rights were traded by Carolina to the Tampa Bay Lightning for a 3rd round pick.

Subsequently, Guentzel signed a 7 year, $63M deal ($9M AAV) to be a long term stay with the Lightning. Since joining the Bolts, he has 42 points in 40 games and is hovering around the top 10 in the NHL in goals scored.

It's always hard to part ways with a franchise staple. Penguins fans will forever miss getting half off Jake Shakes on days after he scored a goal. But when we look at this trade objectively, the Penguins accomplished a goal: they got younger.

The promising talent to come from the trade is still years away, but that's not a bad thing when you consider the state of the Penguins as they currently sit.

The Penguins are old. They're built on nostalgia. That isn't a bad thing, however, it's not going to be enough to make them true contenders. They might accidently win a playoff round in the next year or so, but as they currently are, the future needed to be addressed.

Kyle Dubas was looked at with scowls after the trade, and I won't pretend like I wasn't in that crowd. I remember where I was when I saw the tweet. I left dinner with friends, went back to my dorm room and took a long shower with "Sand In My Boots" by Morgan Wallen playing on repeat.

But, like I wanted to do with this retrospective, looking objectively at the deal, it's more beneficial to Pittsburgh than detrimental. The Penguins were never going to be able to sign Jake to a massive contract, and at the time of the trade, the Penguins were dead men walking.

As an additional nugget, the fear for the present Penguins was who was going to score goals on Crosby's wing. Here's your weekly reminder that Rickard Rakell has bounced back from a wretched 2023-24 campaign and is top 10 in the NHL in goals.

Jake's shoes have been filled for the time being, but even more importantly, the Penguins have hope for a distant future thanks to the contents of the return.

Jake 'N Bake will always be a forever Penguin, and perhaps his contributions to Pittsburgh's success will continue to file in even after his departure.

Alright, I'll cave on the highlights. Here are all 13 of his goals in the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened. Enjoy.