Pittsburgh Penguins: Five Things to Watch in First-Round Matchup
Goaltending
The Flyers welcomed back starting netminder Brian Elliott last week, returning from surgery after an extended absence. Elliott only played in two games to end the season, but pitched a shutout for the Flyers in a must-win against the Rangers. In addition to Elliott, the Flyers also have Petr Mrazek and Alex Lyon, who split time in net while Elliott was out.
Elliott: 43 GP, 23 W, 11 L, 7 OTL, SV% .909, 2.66 GAA
Mrazek: 22 GP, 9 W, 7 L, 3 OTL, SV% .891, 3.22 GAA
Lyon: 11 GP, 4 W, 2 L, 1 OTL, SV % .905, 2.75 GAA
In 41 playoff games, Elliott has a record of 15-22 with a 2.60 GAA and a .908 Save Percentage. The Flyers are hoping Elliott plays more like he did in 2015-2016 with the Blues than he did last year with the Flames. In four games last year with Calgary, he gave up 12 goals, with a 3.89 GAA and .880 Save Percentage.
On the flip side, the Penguins welcomed back Matt Murray last month after an extended absence due to a concussion. While Murray has been criticized for having a less than stellar season, he’s been on pace with the other goalies in the system. Tristan Jarry and Casey DeSmith combined for 20 wins throughout the season.
Murray: 49 GP, 27 W, 16 L, 3 OTL, SV% .906, 2.92 GAA
Jarry: 26 GP, 14 W, 6 L, 2 OTL, SV% .908, 2.77 GAA
DeSmith: 14 GP, 6 W, 4 L, 0 OTL, SV% .921, 2.40 GAA
In 32 playoff games, Matt Murray’s record speaks for itself. Murray has a postseason record of 22-9, with a 1.95 GAA and a .928 Save Percentage. I’d expect the Flyers to get a lot of shots on net, especially towards Murray’s glove side.
There’s a good chance that whomever wins this series will do so because of solid, but not stellar goaltending.
Odd-man rushes
One thing can almost be guaranteed for this series: a high number of odd-man rushes and breakaways. Both teams play an intense, offense-first system, with pinching defensemen. This opens up the game to plenty of opportunities for teams to take advantage of. Jesse Marshall over at The Athletic gave a good breakdown of the Penguin’s plan to use the lob pass to bypass the Flyers system, which you can read here.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins will need to make sure that any defenseman that pinches in on a play is replaced by a back-checking forward. This has been an issue for the team in recent weeks, resulting in plenty of breakaways and 2-on-1s. For the Flyers, the 2-1-2 system tries to prevent this by not buying in too hard, but isn’t impenetrable.
History
In 2012, the Penguins and Flyers met for one of the most brutal playoff series in recent years. The Flyers leased space in the Penguin’s head throughout the series, causing multiple meltdowns and lopsided games. A penalty-filled affair saw the Flyers win in six games.
Including that series, the Penguins and Flyers have met 6 times in the postseason, with the Flyers holding an advantage in the series. The Flyers have won 4 of the 6 previous meetings and hold a 19-16 win lead over the Penguins. In the six series, only one has gone to seven games (1989), two have been won in 5 games, and 3 in six games. Nobody has been swept in previous meetings on these teams.
With that said, these are not the Broad Street Bullies of the past. This Flyers team is one of the least penalized teams in the NHL, which leads us to our next item:
Special teams
It wouldn’t be a stretch to imagine this series largely decided on even-strength play. The Penguins have the top powerplay in the league this season with a 26.1% conversion rate, while the Flyers penalty kill finished in 29th. Unfortunately for the Penguins, they may not get a chance to take advantage much as the Flyers managed to stay out of penalty trouble this year. For the Penguins, their average penalty killing unit (17th) would meet an average power play (15th).
With the limited opportunities, the Penguins will have to take advantage of every powerplay given. At the same time, if the Flyers are aggressive on the penalty kill, they can make the Penguins have to win games at even strength.