Like what we did yesterday looking back at the month of March, today we're going to look ahead for the abbreviated month of April.
The Penguins are all but eliminated from the Stanley Cup playoffs with seven games remaining on their schedule. Down six points to both the Rangers and Canadiens is insurmountable, and the only way they could sneak in is by way of an absolute collapse on their part.
The Penguins had their fair share of chances to make these final games meaningful, but, ultimately, their resurgence came up short at the end of March.
The Schedule
After Sidney Crosby sent Ottawa into a furious frenzy for the umpteenth time in history, the Penguins won't play again until Thursday when they take on the St. Louis Blues - the literal embodiment of the sun with how scorching hot they are right now.
The Penguins beat the Blues 5-3 back on March 13th, and the Blues haven't lost since.
Then the Penguins head to Dallas on Saturday to take on the Stars, a team they've beaten just once in the last five years. Most Stars-Penguins games go the same way: Dallas gets out early, and Pittsburgh can't score.
Immediately following the afternoon game in Dallas, the team flies to Chicago to take on the Blackhawks for the first time this season on the front end of a home-and-home.
Despite the Blackhawks being one of the worst teams in the 2020's, the Penguins have not played them as such. Chicago has won three of the last five matchups dating back to 2021. These two games could throw a wrench into the tank if things happen that way.
Then, Pittsburgh finishes on the road in New Jersey before coming home to play the Bruins on Sunday April 13, then the Capitals on Thursday April 17th in what could possibly be the final meeting between Sid and Ovi.
Projecting the Record
With the playoffs out of the question, the objective for the Penguins is to fall from grace in these final seven games of the season, and it's going to be a fairly bipolar path to do so.
On one hand you have teams like the Blues, Stars, and Capitals that look to be losses on paper based on their current play and history. On the other hand you play the Blackhawks twice and the Bruins who haven't won a game since sliced bread was invented.
This has the making of what March amounted to be: doing the absolute most and benefitting the absolute least.
Had the Penguins mopped up and taken care of business on just a smattering of occasions this season, we would be talking about a first round matchup with the Capitals later this month. That's how close this team is, yet at the same time they couldn't be further away.
This was an incredibly weak year for the Eastern Conference, so a team like the Penguins who has more wins than just two other NHL teams hangs onto hope far too long, effectively sabotaging what could be a top draft selection.
Going through each game, I say the Penguins beat the Blues. They have to lose at some point, and Tristan Jarry owns the Blues. Then they'll go to Dallas and get scooped up off the ice.
The home-and-home with the Blackhawks I have a bad feeling about. I honestly think the Penguins win both games, as awful as that would be. The Blackhawks got super hot right after they traded Seth Jones, but they've sunk back to reality.
I think New Jersey is going to be desperate for a win by the time the Penguins play them, so I'll write that up as a loss. Then, just like how the Bruins ruined the Penguins' season last year, they'll ruin it again by rolling over and letting the Penguins win, allowing Boston to sneak below us in the standings.
The final game could have a lot of implications with Alex Ovechkin, and I have an article planned on why Ovi's goal record being achieved this season might be crucial for the Penguins' future status.
The Capitals will have nothing to play for by then, but everything will depend on if Ovechkin has the goal record by then. As of today he's five goals away. I'm going to write this up as a loss, but consider this one a tossup for now.
That's a 4-3-0 record, gaining eight points in a seven game frame. So where does that put the Pens?
Final Standings
With our projected 4-3-0 record, the Penguins finish 34-37-11 with 79 points, missing the playoffs comfortably by six points, but also sabotaging their lottery chances by finishing 9th in the league tank standings. My projections have the Ducks falling beneath them.
The Flyers have just six games left, and they will not collect eight points with five of their six games coming against Eastern Conference Wild Card contenders.
The Bruins will continue to nosedive, and they won't pick up 10 points in eight games.
The Sabres, although they're on a bit of a hot streak, play seven playoff-caliber teams in their final nine games. I don't see them logging 11 points in that span.
Everyone else lower in the standings is perfectly safe if the Penguins win four more games.
It's not a good prospect knowing our projections are standard with how things have shaken out this season. Pittsburgh has a 6% chance to receive the 1st overall pick in this draft, but those odds are ever dwindling.
The story of the Penguins in 2024-25 remains: doing the absolute most while benefitting the absolute least.