The Penguins have seemingly abandoned the tank, winning three straight games against playoff-caliber teams. They've vaulted themselves back to within 6 points of the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference.
Although they are not favored with games remaining, the Penguins of yesteryear were also seemingly down and out around this time. Let's take a look at where the Penguins were in mid-March last year and whether or not they can project to make another run at the playoffs.
Record Comparison
On March 14th, 2024, the Penguins snapped a four game losing streak, beating the San Jose Sharks 6-3 to improve to 29-27-9 on the season. In 65 games, they'd snagged 67 points, a 51.5% point percentage. They finished 10-5-3, a 63.9% point percentage.
As of today, the Penguins are 27-31-10. That's 64 points in 68 games, good for just a 47.7% point percentage.
So, not only do the current Penguins have less games to work with, but they've set themselves up worse than last season in terms of points they've already accrued.
Standings Comparison
The only option for the Penguins in 2024 was to snag the second Wild Card spot, which ultimately went to the Washington Capitals, who finished 40-31-11 (91 points).
On our March 14th date last year, the Capitals beat the Kraken 2-1 to move to 31-25-9 (71 points) through 65 games, the same mark as the Penguins at this time. By our March 14th date, the Penguins were four points behind the team that would go on to make the playoffs.
The Penguins missed the playoffs by three points in 2024, finishing behind Washington and Detroit, who both finished with 91 points.
Detroit lost to the Coyotes on March 14th last year, moving to 33-27-6 (72 points) through 66 games.
While the Penguins were "in it" by this point last year, they were certainly trailing in the standings.
Saying the Penguins were trailing in the standings last year forces me to say something different about this year to distinguish the two. This year, the Penguins are, well, scratching and crawling miles behind the pack.
Right now, the Penguins - while only being 6 points back - find themselves in need of jumping seven teams to get into the final Wild Card spot.
The Penguins have to out-net the Rangers, Blue Jackets, Canadiens, Red Wings, Bruins, Islanders, and Flyers to get into the final Wild Card spot with only 14 games to work with.
The Million Dollar Question
So, is it possible? Short answer. No.
Long answer...yes.
Now, don't read into that too much. Am I personally wanting the Penguins to make a run only for them to fall short again next season? No. I'd rather them sink to the bottom.
But, in terms of sheer possibility, the Penguins - despite their 0.1% chance administered by every model that exists - can make the playoffs.
Remaining Schedule
Here's a look at the Penguins remaining schedule.
March
To finish out March, the Penguins will play the Devils, Islanders, Blue Jackets, Panthers, Lightning, Sabres, and Senators.
Circle these games with me. Firstly, if they beat the Devils, then the magic is real. The Penguins have been awful against the Metropolitan division this year, so if they win tomorrow against a red hot New Jersey squad, the dream is very, very alive.
Next, the Islanders and Blue Jackets are teams the Penguins will need to jump. Namely, if the Penguins can beat the Blue Jackets at home, that would be arguably the biggest win in March the rest of the way.
Then comes the Florida circuit. Two tough teams in the Panthers and Lightning. At that point, we will know if the Penguins have a chance or not.
Remember the Almighty Stat, the Penguins need a +51% point percentage in March. They're right at 50% right now.
April
The seven games in April are as follows: Blues, Stars, Blackhawks twice, Devils, Bruins, Capitals.
Of those games, the only one with immediate consequence is Boston in the second to last game of the year. Astute Penguins fans would remember last year when the Penguins were officially ended by the Bruins in a 6-4 frenzy.
Otherwise, seeing the Blackhawks in back-to-back games could bode well for the Penguins if they're still in it. However, even more astute Penguins fans would remember 2023 when the Blackhawks beat the Penguins in the penultimate game of the season. They missed the playoffs by one point.
The Penguins could benefit from the Capitals resting players, especially if Alex Ovechkin beats Gretzky's goal record by then. Tristan Jarry owns the Blues (7-1-0) and the Stars are always a tough customer.
What do the Penguins need?
So what record do the Penguins need the rest of the way to make it?
I'm going to prescribe 10 wins in the final 14 for the Penguins to make the playoffs. That's 18 points excluding any overtime losses, which would finish them at 84 points.
That mark is likely enough to beat out the Flyers, Islanders, Bruins, and Red Wings. The final roadblocks are the Canadiens, Rangers, and Blue Jackets.
The Rangers and Canadiens are trending up, but the Blue Jackets seem to be trending down. Each of those three teams would need a point percentage under 50% for the Penguins to make the playoffs at 84 points.
Final Prediction: Is it possible? Yes. Will it happen? No.
I'm saying that the Penguins will finish with 7 wins and a handful of overtime losses and miss out by four points. They'll be in it, but ultimately, they'll fall short.
Opinions are subject to change, but as of now, it would take a March miracle for the Penguins to make the playoffs. The Eastern Conference is substantially weaker this year, though.
Hey, positivity seems to have worked this week. Like I said, if the Penguins beat the Devils tomorrow, buckle up.